I wonder if Dirk would be smiling so widely if he realizedthat he looks like the cover model for WNBA Live 2011.
The Dallas Mavericks

Last season, the Mavs won 55 games, which was the second-best mark in the Bestern Conference and fourth-best in the league (behind the Cavaliers, Lakers and Magic). Then they lost in the first round of the playoffs for the third time in the last four years. Sure, it was a six-game defeat by San Antonio, but the Spurs were swept clean in the second round. So I'm not sure that speaks very highly of how good the 2009-10 Mavs actually were.

And check it: Despite being a top team in terms of wins and losses, the Mavericks ranked only 8th in Point Differential, 10th in Offensive Efficiency and 12 in Defensive Efficiency. I say "only" because those are decent rankings. But "decent" and "championship-caliber" are two very different things.

And these Mavs are not contenders. I mean, what's changed?

Mark Cuban re-signed Dirk Nowitzki (four years, $80 million) and Brendan Haywood (six years, $55 million), and he traded Erick Dampier's expiring contract (plus Eduardo Najera and Matt Carroll) for Tyson Chandler's expiring deal (and Alexis Ajinca). Lesser (read that, meaningless) deals included drafting Dominque Jones and signing Ian Mahinmi to a one-year contract.

Other than that, all the Mavericks did was get older. The age of the team's top six players ranges between 30 (Caron Butler) to 37 (Jason Kidd). Dirk Nowitzki is still churning out points at a fairly efficient rate, but the rest of the crew seems to be in slow decline.

Why should we expect this squad to get any better?

Okay, there is a wee smidge of hope. Between Butler, Chandler and DeShawn Stevenson, Cuban has $27 million in expiring contracts. And you know what that means: Mid-season trade! Dallas could almost certainly pick up one or two key players with that kind of money. But unless it's a high-caliber All-Star or Superstar-level player -- which seems doubtful -- I don't see the Mavs leaping from also-ran to major player.

This team has finished with at least 50 wins for 10 straight years, and they'll either reach that mark or come close again this year. But another first round exit -- or, if they get a favorable matchup in round one, an elimination in the conference semis -- is about as optimistic an appraisal as I can muster for these guys.

Which means more Mark Cuban facepalms!

This never gets old. Never.
The Houston Rockets

During the 2009-10 campaign, the Rockets were the little engine that almost could. Despite losing Yao Ming to injury and Tracy McGrady to fail, Houston managed to win 42 games with a bunch of gritty role players giving their best. It was a true underdog story. [Insert uplifting music here -- maybe Queen's "We Are The Champions" -- and feel free to shed a single, dramatic tear.]

Unfortunately for the Rockets, they weren't in a movie. So instead of the happy ending where a group of scrappy misfits bust the odds to defeat a group of vastly superior athletes, the team got an early vacation.


So how did the Rockets improve over the summer? They locked up Luis Scola for five years (overpaying him with a $47 million contract), drafted Scola's backup (Patrick Patterson), overpaid ($24 million!) for backup point guard Kyle Lowry, overspent on Brad Miller ($15 million!) for Yao insurance, and traded Trevor Ariza for Courtney Lee.

Other than the Ariza trade, those moves don't look all that great on paper do they? Or a computer screen. Or an Etch-A-Sketch. But I keep hearing about what a crazy-mad genius Daryl Morey, so I'm sure these were championship moves. Now please wait a moment while I mop up all this dripping sarcasm.

Still, if Yao can stay healthy for once, the Rockets have two legit inside threats (Ming and Scola), a great young point guard (Aaron Brooks), a crack perimeter player (Kevin Martin), and a group of solid role players/shooters (Lee, Shane Battier, Chase Buddinger, etc.). The Rockets have talent. They definitely have talent.

What they also have is a franchise player who's body is made of broken glass covered in soggy marshmallow and tissue paper. Meanwhile, their second best player (Martin) is more of a crispy papier-mâché, having missed 88 games over the past three seasons. Oh, and two speedsters (Brooks and Lowry) surrounded by a bunch of guys who have the quickness of a thick paste (Battier, Ming, Miller, Scola, Chuck Hayes, Pat Patterson). It's kind of hard to fast break when most of your team takes 10 seconds or more to cross halfcourt.

Doesn't another Yao injury, 40-45 wins and a brave but ultimately futile playoff chase sound about right? Yeah, it sounds right to me, too.

The Memphis Grizzlies

The general consensus among NBA fans is that the Grizzlies had what was, for them, a wildly successful season last year.

Reality check: That success equated to a 17th place finish in Offensive Efficiency, a 24th place finish in Defensive Efficiency, 40 wins, and yet another year of watching the playoffs from the lavish comfort of their own homes while covered in Victoria's Secret models and hundred dollar bills. Or maybe fifty dollar bills.


When the 2009-10 season was about to open, some Basketbawful readers suggested an "Assist Watch" for the Grizzlies, who opened the year with Allen Iverson, O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph on the roster...notorious ball stoppers one and all. Sure, Memphis sent Iverson packing when he started ranting about minutes -- which happened after the first game, mind you -- but that still left the Griz with a "Big Three" who live by the motto "I will go down shooting. And then shoot from my grave."

The result: According to ESPN's John Hollinger, the Grizzlies had the lowest percentage of assisted field goals last season. And according to Basketball-Reference.com, Memphis finished with only three more total assists than the 12-win New Jersey Nets.

Shock. Awe. More shock.

For all their "success," the Care Bares were a shot-happy, defenseless bunch who probably would have won only 30-35 games if they hadn't led the league in offensive rebound percentage (KBAs, baby!).

Don't worry. It gets worse.

During the offseason, owner Michael Heisley made a series of mystifying moves, like way overpaying ($81.6 million!) for Rudy gay, letting Ronnie Brewer walk (after having acquired him from Utah for a first round pick), immediately insulting two smart draft picks (Xavier Henry and Greivis Vasquez) by offering them 20 percent less than the maximum specified by the Collective Bargaining Agreement, and then selling the 25th overall pick in the 2010 draft to the Dallas Mavericks.

Oh, and he signed Acie "One and a half feet in the NBA grave" Law.

The Grizzlies have a beastly frontcourt in Randolph and Marc "Why am I still so underrated anyway?" Gasol, a couple streaky perimeter players in Gay and Mayo, and...Mike Conley at point guard. Ugh.

Adding Henry, Vasques and Tony Allen will improve the team's depth, but I wouldn't trust this bunch any more than I would trust Eddy Curry to guard my ham sandwich. This team won't make the playoffs. Heck, they probably won't win 40 games again. Maybe ever.

But at least they have Allen marinating in the locker room.

The New Orleans Hornets

Chris Paul is begging, crying, and even screaming for some help. And if the Hornets don't give it to him, he's probably going to leave.

Seriously.

Well, no worries, Chris: Help is on the way!

Here you go: Trevor Ariza, Marco Belinelli, Craig Brackins, Quincy Pondexter, Mustafa Shakur, Jason Smith, Jerryd Bayless! And Aaron Gray!!

Oh dear God. CP3 is so gone.

I mean, the starting five -- Paul, Ariza, David West, Emeka Okafor and Marcus Thornton -- is solid (if not spectacular) enough. But there's no depth. None. The New Orleans bench is like one of those old NBA Live games where the reserves were just a bunch of faceless guys who cheered and clapped in an endless loop. Even if everybody stays healthy and Chris Paul plays like a miniature Godzilla pumped up on Super Soldier serum, this team's ceiling is, what, 40-45 games? Unless coach Monty Williams turns off fatigue so the starters can play 48 minutes a night...oh wait, this isn't NBA Live.

The only winner here is going to be the Knicks when they trade for Paul at the deadline. Just kidding. But not really.

The San Antonio Spurs

Look, can we just agree that the window has closed?

Yeah, yeah. I know, I know. A lot of Spurs backers are pointing at the Tiago Splitter signing and using that as proof that there's still a glimmer of hope. Maybe even more than a glimmer.

I said it before and I'll say it again:


Look, I'm not trying to get lazy with my analysis here. But the Spurs aren't contenders for one key reason: Tim Duncan is in decline. It's hard to tell. I mean, he's played at least 75 games in each of the last five seasons (including 78 last year). His PER has been standing pat at 24+ for the past four seasons, including a fifth-place mark of 24.7 last year (which is only three-tenths of a point off his career PER of 25.0). And he's still in the top 10 in categories like Rebound Percentage, Defensive Rating and Win Shares.

See, that's how freaking amazing Tim Duncan is: Even in decline, he's awesome.

But he's not what he was. He's not. If you have an HD television, you can practically watch his knees creak. And even though he's still amazingly efficient and as smart as ever, he doesn't dominate the way he used to. He doesn't own games like in the old days. And when he has bad nights -- often against the better teams -- they're stinkers. Take his 5-point, 1-for-10 performance in a 110-84 loss in Orlando. Or his 6-point, 2-for-11 outing in a 92-83 home loss to the Lakers. Or even his 4-for-23 brickfest at Indiana.

Everybody has bad nights. And Duncan still has more good nights than bad ones. For instance, he had a 27-rebound game in a win over the Hawks and grabbed another 26 rebounds in that Indy game. But you can't automatically pencil TD in for total domination anymore. Which is a problem, because he's the foundation of San Antonio's offense and defense.

The Celtics can get away with Kevin Garnett's semi-gimpy knees because he anchors their defense but is only a happy addition on offense. Duncan is responsible for everything. Sure, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili (assuming their health holds out) take pressure off on the offensive end. But the O begins with Duncan and the D ends with him.

Unfortunately, Duncan is 34 years old and his NBA odometer reads 977 regular season games and 35,577 game played, plus another 170 playoff games and 6,740 minutes played. Timmy has spent the last decade-plus carrying the Spurs on his back -- and make no mistake, Duncan (not Kobe, LeBron, or Shaq) was the best player of the 2000s -- and I just don't think he has it in him to keep doing it and win a championship.

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, NBA season preview, New Orleans Hornets, San Antonio Spurs

Everybody wants a piece of that Lin.Or that kickin' new uni.

Hey readers. AnacondaHL here, standing in to bring you the Pacific division preview. Let's get this started.

The Golden State Warriors

Crap.

The Los Angeles Clippers

Crappy Crap.

The Los Angeles Lakers

Crappier than people will expect.

The Phoenix Suns

Less crappy than people will expect, but nevertheless, crap.

The Sacramento Kings

Crap up in this bitch.



...


...ugh, fine, I'll do this properly.

Let's try this a different way. The NBA preseason has come to a close, and without going into a discussion about how well preseason success correlates to regular season records, (oblig link 1, oblig link 2), let's take a look at how the Pacific did:



Good Lordy. To help me get through this, aside from the multiple Pacificos, I'll be posting Basketball Prospectus' SHOENE projection for each team next to my projection and their standing in the West. Also, don't ask me for the rest of the projections, go spend your $10 on this fantastic read that's well worth it.

The Golden State Warriors

So, due to alphabetic obligations, we unfortunately start with the team with the most questionable SHOENE outlook. Is there a factor in the equation that accounts for an awesome switch back to throwback uniforms?

Well if anything there's some consideration to the coach. With the loss of The winningest coach in NBA history, you'd think the Warriors would be set to repeat or worse their 26-56 2009-10 record. Of course everyone knows that I'm joking, and that Don Nelson leaving is addition via subtraction, and Keith Smart has a chance to prove himself, beyond wacky games with limited rosters.

Throw in the growth of Stephen Curry as a star, and the acquisition of David Lee, the pickup of hard worker Sweet Lou, the room for Reggie Williams and Andris Biedrins to develop (and to hopefully improve his 16.0% FT%), and Monta Ellis ready to chuck it up, and the Warriors could be a surprise team in the West playoffs. And did I mention their pickup of Jeremy Lin? He's Asian! And American! And went to Harvard! Best PR use of an Asian player on an NBA basketball team since not Yi.

Still, I just don't see this squad nearly doubling their win total. David Lee's sieve defense is notorious in the Big Apple, and yet he fits right into their "get the steal or bust" methods. If anything, they've solidified their worst-in-the-league 112.4 points surrendered per game, and may give Toronto a run for their money at worst defensive rating next season.

I'm still jealous of their uniforms though.

SHOENE says: 49-33 (4)
AHL says: 40-42 (12)


The Los Angeles Clippers

Another year looking strong on paper, another year of disappointment. Don't get hyped up on this team as always, they are fighting to stay out of the bottom of the entire West.

Well let's start with the good news. Blake Griffin is looking monsterous. Hulk-esque, if you will. (Bonus YouTube to hype up the 3 Clippers fans).

*Keanu voice* Whoa.
In addition, Eric Gordon's coming off a solid tournament with Team USA. Kaman is Kaman, good for solid numbers. Ryan Gomes was brought in as their utility man. And Baron Davis looks to continue his obligations to this team, while mentoring Eric Bledsoe in the ways of the beard.

And now the bad news, which we all see coming a mile away. Yes, they are the Clippers. Meaning inevitable suck, notable due to inevitable injury. Poor Blake throws himself around the court with reckless disregard, Eric Gordon already seems banged up with a sprained ankle, Baron Davis is Baron Davis (averaging ~63GP per season the past 8 seasons), and Kaman is Kaman (also ~63 GP/season his past 6). That leaves poor Ryan Gomes to hold down the fort with Rasual Butler, Randy Foye, Craig Smith, and DeAndre Jordan. Yea.

Also, Donald Sterling. Still around. Yea. 'Nuff's been said about that.

SHOENE says: 27-55 (15)
AHL says: 24-58 (15)


The Los Angeles Lakers

Our World Champion 5th ringers seem like the team to beat. They dumped Morrison while keeping their championship core, adding PG Steve Blake, SF Matt Barnes, and C Theo Ratliff. They even held onto Mr. Sasha Maria Sharapova.

So why the crappy outlook?

To put it simply: age. Projected team weighted age sits at 30.8, 3rd oldest in the league. Bynum's question marks. Kobe's finger. Artest's crazy. Everything's going downhill with this team. Going from 65 wins in 2008, to an astonishing 57 wins last season thanks to a truckload of Kobe game winners, to what this season?

Well of course the Suns fan in me can't help to expect the best out of the Lakers, and I'd love to chase them out of the postseason in Golden State over Dallas fashion. Additionally, I can see the Lakers doing something amazing for PJax before finally blowing it up. Finally, Kobe seems hungrier than ever for number 6.

But honestly they're going to have to rely on Pau much more (not necessarily a bad thing), and are really one Gasol injury away from dropping to the bottom seeds, hence BP's low outlook on their season. I'm just saying, don't be surprised if they aren't even 2nd seed come April, even in this pathetic division.

SHOENE says: 46-36 (8)
AHL says: 55-27 (1)


The Phoenix Suns

All we needed was to replace Amar''''''e with a solid rebounder who could block some shots and maybe finish at the basket.

Instead we end up with an Atlanta-esque team of SFs. A team of 7 6th men when we needed 3rd-9th.

How did this go so wrong so fast? Was Steve Kerr actually responsible for good decisions, covering for the crapfest Sarver serves? I mean I knew he was bad, but how do you NOT know how to pull off a sign and trade for an actual asset like David Lee, instead of a trade exception I'm sure you're too stupid to know how to use as well?

Anyways, I still think surprising chemistry prevails in this case, as these guys genuinely seem to like each other. Throw in another age defying season by Nash, and the Phoenix medical staff reviving the corpse of Hedo (not to mention Jason Richardson's $14.4 million contract year), and these guys will likely not end up with records as bad as projected. As much as I'd love to see these guys get 50, it seems the West this year will be logjammed at 49-45 wins.

SHOENE says: 37-45 (12)
AHL says: 44-38 (7)


The Sacramento Kings

Rookie 20-5-5.

The steal of the early draft.

The pride of Israeli basketball.

The Super Landry Brothers.

That, uh, bipolarish center guy whose foundation I've actually donated to.

Guys named Beno, Giddens, Pooh, Head, Whiteside, Jason and Mason, Donté (acute accent required!) and Ime Udoka.

Even guys with boring names like Francisco Garcia, Antoine Wright, and Donald Sloan.

And last but not least, but least in some other sense, a gift from the god to our lacktion specialist and Bay Area enthusiast chris, Darnell Lacktion Jackson.

What's not to love about this team? I mean other than a 9th seed upside, multiple character issue risks, and speeding tickets.

SHOENE says: 43-39 (9)
AHL says: 39-43 (13)


Final Verdict for the 2010-11 Pacific Division: Waiting for a bunch of old guys to get injured, funny combinations of names, a couple of first round playoff exits, and Jeremy Lin.


-AnacondaHL

Labels: Golden State Warriors, Jeremy Lin is the first Taiwanese-American in the NBA, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, NBA season preview, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings

If you haven't done it already, you probably shouldn't botherbuying a Carmelo Anthony Denver Nuggets jersey.

The Denver Nuggets

The 2009-10 team wasn't the Enver Nuggets of the past, but they ranked a "meh" 16th in the league with a Defensive Rating of 107.5.

For the record, the league average was 107.6.

However, the Nuggets were a pretty strong offensive squad -- 3rd in Offensive Rating at 111.8 points per 100 possessions -- and they led the league in free throws per field goal attempt (.290). Still, this team had problems even before losing George Karl left the team to have cancer treatments. And I'm not just talking about Kenyon Martin's knee injury and cattle brand sexy lips tattoo.

Outside of Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups and Nene, Denver simply wasn't all that talented (relative to contending teams) and the front office had squandered away all their cap space. There weren't many ways for last year's squad to get better. Or this year's squad for that matter.

Still, the Nuggets used their full mid-level exception on Al Harrington over the summer. Which should help, I guess. Oh, and they picked up Anthony Carter and Shelden Williams for the veteran's minimum. Those were decent bargain moves. Unfortunately, Martin is still on the mend and the Birdman is out with a knee injury of his own. Believe it or not, both of those guys were reasonably important.

However, Denver's biggest problem is the money they failed to spend, specifically what they offered Anthony in the form of a three-year contract extension.

As Tourettes Guy would say: The Nuggets are going to be out of the butt and into the f*** if they don't lock 'Melo into an extension. Which probably isn't going to happen. Ever. By all accounts, Anthony wants out of Denver. For all we know, he may be dreaming of teaming up with Amar''''''e Stoudemire and Chris Paul in New York. Whatever the case, Denver will most likely lose him one way or another, which radically increases the probability that he'll be dealt before February's trade deadline (assuming the Nuggets haven't somehow morphed into contenders).

If 'Melo finishes the season in Denver, the Nuggets will probably end up in the mid-to-upper 40s in terms of wins. If he doesn't, they'll finish in the mid-to-upper 40s in terms of losses. A trend that will likely continue unless they flip Anthony for some serious talent...something that rarely ever happens when a superstar is traded.

All of which means Nuggets fans will soon be joining a support group with Cavaliers and Raptors fans. I know it sucks, folks. Just hold hands and cry it out. It'll get better some day. I promise. (But not really.)

The Minnesota Timberwolves

At 15-67, the 2009-10 T-Wolves were the second-worst team in the NBA, barey ahead of the 12-70 Nets. And remember: New Jersey was one of the worst teams in league history.

Minny ranked 29th in Offensive Rating (ahead of only the Nets) and 28th in Defensive Rating (in front of only the Warriors and Raptors). I could quote many other factoids that highlight their woeful inability to play the sport of basketball -- like the fact that they had a worse point differential than the Nets and went freaking 2-27 after the All-Star break -- but let me just sum this up by saying the Timberwolves sucked serious hind end. I doubt anybody on last year's team will get the taste of sour ass out of their mouth for many years to come.

So how did GM David Kahn try to "fix" this mess over the summer? By giving away All Jefferson for nada and waaaaay overpaying for Darko "Manna from Heaven" Milicic ($20 million) and Luke Ridnour ($16 million). Holy crap, man! Why did owner Glen Taylor bother to fire Kevin McHale is he was going to let Kahn flush hundred dollar bills down the toilet one-by-one?!

That said, Kahn wisely hung onto Kevin Love, signed Nikola Pekovic (a talented overseas prospect) and Anthony Tolliver, and acquired Michael Beasley for a couple meaningless second round draft picks (read that: "for nothing"). Unfortunately, a small handful of moves that could be rated as "mildly kinda-sorta okay" won't change much on this moldering cess pool of a team. The reality is, a monkey could log onto ESPN's Trade Machine and immediately poop out a better team than this.

This team might be able to win 20 games or so. That's their ceiling.

Sorry, Minnesota fans.

The Oklahoma City Thunder

This young team is going to be really good for years to come. Which must feel like a groin punch to Seattle basketball fans everywhere. When their Sonics were raped away from them, at least they could take some solace in the fact that the team was terrible. Now? They're a top four team in the Bestern Conference.

Sorry, Seattle fans.

Last season, the Thunder won 50 games behind a solid defense (9th in Defensive Rating) and Kevin Durant's offense. The biggest concern for this team is the fact that they didn't do much of anything during the offseason. Instead of overspending for a free agent, management held onto their cap space, stockpiled draftees and draft picks, and acquired Mo Pete.

Okay, well, that's foward thinking. Or something. But the "tread water" approach rarely works for championship caliber teams, and it's hard to imagine it doing much for the Thunder.

That said, Oklahoma City did sign Durant to a five-year contract extension, and for all we know this kid could blow up again this season. If Durant plays like an MVP on steroids, the Thunder could certainly win another 45-50 games, qualify for the playoffs, and give some team a scare in the first and/or second round.

However, 2010-11 could also be a rude awakening for this team on the rise. I mean, will the Thunder stay as healthy as they did in 2009-10, when four of their five starters played all 82 games and all nine rotation players played at least 73? Will they be able to stand up to all the sky-high expectations now that opposing teams will be gunning for them? Can Kevin Durant really make a Second Leap right after last year's First Great Leap? Aren't we making a lot of assumptions about a team that overachieved and didn't improve at all over the summer?

The Thunder are getting a lot of buzz. But me, I'm wary. Very wary.

The Portland Trail Blazers

Ttttthhhheeee Trrrraaaaaaaiiiiillll Bllllaaaazzzeeeerrssss aaaarrrree aaaaa sllloooooowwww ttteeeeaaaaam.

Seriously.

Last season, Portland ranked dead last in Pace Factor, averaging a feeble 87.7 possessions per 48 minutes. You'd think they were using canes and walkers or something.

You want their offensive formula? The Blazers isolate Brandon Roy, crash the boards, and take care of the basketball. That's what they do. It's actually really similar to what the Atlanta Hawks did with their iso-Joe offense. And I guess it worked well enough: Portland ranked 7th in Offensive Rating at 110.8 points per 100 possessions.

But, honestly, that system isn't going to win many playoff series. Sure enough, the Blazers were eliminated in round one by a well-balanced Phoenix Suns team.

Don't get me wrong, people. I'm not naysaying the Blazers. Just point out some facts, which most people just discard anyway. On the up side, Portland is young, deep and very talented. And don't forget: The Blazers managed to win 50 games last year despite an ongoing series of freaky-freak injuries, which included Joel Przybilla blowing out his knee twice (the second time while taking a shower) and coach Nate McMillan

What's more, the Blazers have $15 million in expiring contracts (assuming they don't pick up team options on Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez and Nicolas Batum), two first round draft picks and trade bait in Fernandez (who wants off the team and could be considered a difference maker by potential contenders around the trade deadline).

You're telling me this team can't get better? You're telling me that, assuming nobody suffers a major injury, that they couldn't win 50-55 games? Or put up a serious fight in the playoffs? And if Greg Oden stays healthy...

...buh...buh...buhbwahahahahahaha!! I keed, I keed. That's not going to happen.

Sorry, Blazers fans.

The Utah Jazz

During the offseason, Utah took a big hit when they lost Carlos Boozer, who's now busy being injured for the Bulls instead of the Jazz.

Still, they pulled of a major coup by getting Al Jefferson for next to nothing. Big Al can almost certainly cover most of what Boozer gave them: Namely, 20 points, 10 rebounds, and a porous defense that consists of either reaching matador-style or simply hacking first and asking questions later.

This highlights Utah's biggest problem: Interior defense. Asking Boozer and Mehmet Okur to protect the painted area is like handing Lindsay Lohan a bottle of Jack and a bag of drugs and asking her to keep them safe. It ain't gonna happen. And it didn't. Therefore, the Jazz had to rely on a slap-happy defense that ranked second in personal fouls (1,859) and a league-worst in opponents free throws per field goal attempt (.269).

Of course, they ranked 5th in defensive rebound percentage and 6th in opponents turnover rate. And they did rank 10th in Defensive Rating. so it wasn't all doom and gloom on the defensive end. If the Jazz can stop hacking, they could be a top five defensive squad.

And there's not much wrong with them offensively. They were tops in percentage of assisted field goals (67.8) 4th in effective field goal percentage (.524), 4th in Free Throws Per Field Goal Attempt (.252) and the 5th-best team in terms of turnover percentage (.142). That's a Jerry Sloan offense for you. It helps that Deron Williams is freaking awesome, and maybe the best or second-best point guard in the league.

On the downside, Okur is still recovering from a torn Achilles and Kyle Korver is playing for the Bulls, so Utah will begin the season minus their two best long-range shooters. That could hurt the offense. Plus, Al Jefferson -- who is still learning the system -- hurt his hand against the Lakers the other night. The team has little depth and less interior defense.

Still, this is the Jazz we're talking about. Sloan will get them to execute like crazy and play hard almost every night. They'll win 45-50 games and make the playoffs, where they'll probably make a first or second round exit. Unless they make some sort of deal to shore up their bench and/or add some beef up front, they won't be able to handle big teams like L.A. and Portland.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA season preview, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz

For some reason, this pic makes me think about Dr. Loomis' speech about evil...
The Atlanta Hawks

Holy crappity crap, the Hawks are screwed. Seriously, they are so screwed.

Think about it. The Hawks were a middle of the road defensive team (14th in Defensive Efficiency at 104.0) that somehow managed to be one of the Association's better offensive squads (3rd in Offensive Efficiency at 108.9) despite the fact that most of their sets revolved around isolating Joe Johnson or getting Jamal Crawford open for a jump shot. It helped that the rest of the Hawks selflessly crashed the boards and the team as a whole managed to avoid turning the ball over. Oh, and Atlanta didn't suffer any major injuries.

With all the aforementioned serendipity, the Dirty Birds managed 53 wins, which, in the Leastern Conference, was good enough for the third seed. But in the playoffs, they barely avoided first round elimination against the Bucks before getting absolutely obliterated by the Magic. Allow me to share the scores from that four-game sweep: 114-74, 112-98, 105-75, 98-84. Swept by an average of 24.5 PPG.

Ouchies.

Even at their absolute best with nobody getting hurt and everything going right, the 2009-10 Hawks were nowhere near good enough to compete for a title. Or even a respectable series against a contender.

So what's different about the 2010-11 Hawks? Uhm, they fired coach Mike Woodson and hired Larry Drew to be their new head coach; they signed Joe Johnson to a six-year, $123.7 million deal, otherwise known as "The absolute worst contract handed out during the summer in which Darko 'Manna from Heaven' Milicic got $20 million"; drafted a couple bums; signed Josh Powell to a one-year deal at the vet's minimum; traded Josh Childress to the Suns for a second-round pick; signed Etan Thomas to a one-year deal at the vet's minimum.

In essence, the Hawks didn't get any better while at the same time destroying all future cap flexibility by giving Johnson what will probably be remembered as the most horrific contract of this decade. There's no way the Hawks will win 50 games again -- let's face it, Crawford won't have another career year, Johnson is only going to get worse and the rest of the team just isn't that good -- but they'll probably win 40-45, make the playoffs, and get sent home early and cruelly. Just like last season.


Sorry, Hawks fans.

The Charlotte Bobcats

Over the past several days, there's been a lot of chatter on the Interwebs about whether Michael Jordan could score 100 points in today's game. But here's a better, more relavant question:

Can Jordan's team, the Charlotte Bobcats, score 100 points in today's game?

Last season, the 'Cats ranked 28th in PPG (95.3), 26th in Pace Factor (90.4 possessions per 48 minutes) and 24th in Offensive Efficiency (101.5). Of course, they ranked first in Opponent's PPG (93.8) and Defensive Efficiency (100.2), which just goes to show you that this is a typical Larry Brown team: Slow it down, grind it out, churn out regular season wins, make the playoffs, get eliminated early.

And that's pretty much what happened last season. Brown coaxed 44 wins out of squad with more gaping holes than Anal Bimbos 27: Buttier Than Ever. Against all reason, Larry goaded his team to the franchise's first ever playoff appearance...during which they were mashed to an oozing pulp by the Orlando Magic. Still, it was yet another example of how Brown squeezes every last drop of talent out of his team. Before he quits on them and moves onto the next team, that is.

Still, the Bobcats are a deeply flawed bunch. And in case you're wondering how those flaws were "addressed," I'm about to tell you. Jordan let Raymond Felton walk; pulled Shaun Livingston out of his NBA grave; signed Tirade Thomas to a five-year, $40 million mistake; flipped Tyson Chandler and Alexis Ajinca for Matt Carroll, Eduardo Najera and Erick Dampier's dumpable deal (this wasn't even a salary saver, btw, as the 'Cats merely broke even on the deal, essentially giving Chandler away for nada); signed Dominic McGuire (defense yes, offense no); and signed Kwame Brown, leading to to several days worth of "What the f*** is up with MJ and Kwame Brown?!"

So basically, Charlotte didn't improve at all. Hell, they might have gotten a little worse.

Look, I understand the whole "Defense Wins Championships" concept, and to a large extent, I agree. That said, NBA teams are still expected to score more points than their opponents. Can you see this squad doing that against the top tier teams? Or even the middle tier teams on a consistent basis. Brown can probably cattle prod another 35-40 wins out of this group of castoffs, assuming 1) he maintains his intensity and committment to the team and 2) the players keep drinking his Kool-Aid.

Still, I don't know how the 'Cats are going to get by without a real, honest-to-goodness point guard. Last season, Felton did a decent enough job masquerading as a PG in order to earn a contract. But Livingston of the Living Dead is not an answer to anything other than "What is one of the saddest stories in NBA history?"

The Miami Heat

I'm not going to go on and on about this team. I mean, we're all a little sick of hearing and reading about them already, right?

Here's as brief a summary as I can manage: They're going to be awesome. For the most part, Pat Riley surrounded the Nazgul with enough talent to contend despite cap limitations (something many people thought he couldn't do). Miami is strong on the perimeter but f***ed at center. They won't win 70 games this season, but they're a lock for 60+ wins and a deep playoff run. Not sure they're going to get by Boston or Orlando (or the Lakes if they make it to the Finals) this season, but the Heat are going to win a title some time in the next few years. Just accept that and move on.

The Orlando Magic

The Magic are one of those trick-or-treat "contenders." They're really, really good -- last season they ranked 2nd in both Offensive Efficiency (109.5) and Defensive Efficiency (102.2) -- and yet not quite good enough, you know? I mean, look at their three best players. Unless Hakeem Olajuwon worked some serious voodoo this summer, Dwight Howard's offensive game still isn't polished enough to prevent him from getting shut down by big, talented frontcourts (such as the ones he'll face in Boston and L.A.). Vince Carter is a superstar against lesser teams who's guaranteed to disappear or quit in the playoffs. Ditto for Rashard Lewis, only with 20% more disappearing.

Who's going to step up and lead this team when it really counts? J.J. Redick?

Look, Quentin Richardson gives them more three-point shooting and Chris Duhon will be decent as a backup point guard, but the team lost toughness when Matt Barnes walked and their best three players don't have the skills or mental fortitude necessary to beat out the Celtics, Heat (maybe) or Lakers. And frankly, I only see Carter and Lewis declining, while I'm not sure Howard hasn't maxed out as a basketball player (again, unless The Dream has actually physically possessed him).

Orlando is going to win 55-60 games and flame out in the playoffs. Again. Years from now, we're going to look back on their five-game loss to the Lakers in the NBA Finals and realize that was this team's apex.

The Washington Wizards

Washington messed up, okay? The Wizards settled on a core of Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler. They gave those guys big contracts and tried to build around them. And that was a real boner.

Still, the Wiz have been trying to fix the problem. Jamison and Butler are now in different zip codes, and Arenas will be gone about 0.1 seconds after some idiot team agrees to take on his cap-gobbling contract. Which, unfortunately for Washington fans, will probably be never.

Oh well. Two out of three ain't bad.

On the bright side, the Wizards got crazy lucky, winning the NBA draft lottery and selecting future superstar John Wall with the number one overall pick. Apparently, that good fortune was too much for Washington's batshit front office to accept, so they tried to negate that dumb luck by trading for Kirk Hinrich.

Don't get me wrong. Captain Kirk is a solid backup PG who provides solid defense, can play three positions and will be an excellent veteran mentor for Wall. But as ESPN's John Hollinger pointed out, based on the workings of this particular deal, the Wizards basically paid $3 million to take on Hinrich's contract, which will cost them $17 million over the next two seasons.

I guess they just love bad contracts in Washington.

Other offseason moves included: Trading for Chairman Yi, letting a trio of vets (Mike Miller, Randy Foye, James Singleton) depart for greener pastures, signing Hilton Armstrong (yawn), signing Josh Howard (whatever) and giving Andray "Shoot It If Ya Got It" Blatch a three-year, $28 million extension.

That's it. That's the state of Washington's rebuilding effort thus far. Sweet Jesus. I haven't seen something this poorly thought out since KISS Meets The Phantom of the Park:


I'm not sure how this ragtag bunch of shothappy bums and fools is going to win more than 25-30 games. Drafting Wall and adding a savvy vet like Hinrich will help, but this team is a flat-out mess. The Wizards are still several years -- at minimum -- from returning to anything remotely resembling respectability. And the artist formerly known as Agent Zero has become a depressing slob with a crummy beard.

Another season of Washing Generals jokes anyone?

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Bobcats, Miami Heat, NBA season preview, Orlando Magic, Washington Wizards

Naturally, Boozer was injured shortly after this picture was taken. I'm kinda surprised he got through the press conference without a strained hammy.
The Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have nine new players and a new coaching staff. Sure, management whiffed on their attempts to sign LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and/or Chris Bosh. But all is not lost. They have a former All-Star (Carlos Boozer), a couple of possible future All-Stars (Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson), and a budding Superstar (Derrick Rose). They imported shooters (Kyle Korver, C.J. Watson, Keith Bogans), an athlete (Ronnie Brewer) and a crafty veteran (Kurt Thomas). Oh, and they have Luol Deng. For 60-65 games anwway. If they're lucky.

Of course, Boozer set a personal record by getting injured before he'd even played a single preseason game. By falling over a bag. At home. Seriously. The dude probably won't be back until December. Meanwhile, Ronnie Brewer (sore hamstring), C.J. Watson (strained left quadriceps), Taj Gibson (sore right heel) and now Kyle Korver (cyst in his left ankle) have all had ticky-tac injuries. If a window mysteriously slams shut on Noah's hands or a piano falls out of the sky and lands on Rose, I'm going to start thinking the Curse of the Billy Goat has been transferred from the Cubs to the Bulls (with a brief layover at Soldier Field to hit Jay Cutler with another 23 sacks).

With Boozer out, the Bulls might be a casualty of their schedule: In November -- a stretch of 13 games -- Chicago faces eight playoff teams and a Houston squad that should return to the playoffs if Yao Ming can stay healthy for a change. After a tough opening stretch in which they face the Trail Blazers (home), Celtics (road) and Nuggets (home), the Bulls close out the month with a brutal seven-game road trip that features two sets of back-to-backs and consecutive games against the Rockets, Spurs, Mavericks, Lakers, Suns and Nuggets.

And did I mention this team has a league-high 23 sets of back-to-back games?

There's really no figuring out how good the Bulls will be until Boozer is back and manages to shake off the rust from his layoff. But injuries -- seriously, can we just schedule Deng's 15-game absence in advance? -- and a rugged calendar of events will cap this team's potential at 40-45 games. Unless Rose and Noah can make a big leap up. Without falling back down and landing on their heads.

The Cleveland Cavaliers

At this point, it's hard to tell which would have been more devestating to Cleveland: LeBron James taking his talents to South Beach or just dropping a couple nukes on the city. I'm going to go with the LeBron thing. At least the nukes would have been quick and less heartwrenching. Who wouldn't prefer instant incineration or death by radiation poisoning to the hopeless pining for your former hero? Let's face it, King Crab didn't just stab Cleveland in the back, he treated the wound with a lemon juice and acid drip. Every triple-double he has for the Heat will just be another shot to the city's crotch. That's what Clevelanders are in store for: 82 games worth of kicks to the groin.

So what's left? Even with a back-to-back MVP, this squad couldn't make it to the NBA Finals. Heck, last season, the Cavs didn't even reach the Eastern Conference Finals. Now it's Mo Williams, Anthony Parker, Antawn Jamison, J.J. Hickson and Anderson Varejao against The World. I don't know about you, but my money's on The World. And I'm betting big.

It's hard to determine what kind of ceiling this team has -- will they be runny, oozing poop or the hard, calcified kind? -- but I can tell you this much: When new coach Byron Scott falls asleep on the bench this season, he'll be dreaming wistfully of his past firings and begging for the sweet, sweet release his next axing will bring.

The Detroit Pistons

During the summer of 2009, Joe Dumars lost his damn mind and dropped $90 million on Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. (Every time I type that sentence, I have-wonder whether I've lost control of my fingers.) Mind you, those signings happened in the immediate aftermath of trading Chauncey Billups -- only the heart and soul of the freaking team -- for Allen Iverson, who basically quit the team after being relegated to a bench role (a fact that Dumars actually tried to hide by citing a back injury). Anyway, after Dumars obliterated the team's cap space for the foreseeable future, the Pistons suffered all sorts of injuries and essentially fell apart.

And you know what? For Dumars, that was the best thing that could have happened. The injuries provided a smokescreen and built-in excuse for failure. "But, but, but...we were injured, man! Wait 'till next year!"

Yeah, well, next year is here, Joe.

Take a gander at this team's roster. The starting point guard (Rodney Stuckey) isn't a point guard (according to ESPN's John Hollinger, Stuckey ranked 64th out of 71 point guards in assist ratio). Their starting shooting guard (Rip Hamilton) is in the midst of a steady decline and his backup (Gordon) is a defenseless gunner. Tayshaun Prince still does a little bit of everything well, but nothing great. Villanueva is a spotty shooter (who loves to shoot!) and a lousy defender. Ben Wallace is the team's starting center. I know he was better than expected last season, but that was mostly in comparison the dead, rotting body everybody thought he was. Trust me, he won't have a second rivival year.

The bench -- Jason Maxiell and Will Bynum in particular -- used to get a lot of hype, but the shine's off the apple. And Dumars brought in Tracy McGrady for...what exactly? Does the team get some kind of tax relief for taking on crippled players?

Detroit's offense is going to revolve around isolations, clearouts, relentless chucking of outside shots and whatever Big Ben can scrape up on the offensive glass. As for the defense, I hope Dumars spent whatever was left in the petty cash jar on matador capes. This team will be lucky to win 30 games. And trust me, those are going to be 30 of the ugliest games you're going to see this season.

The Indiana Pacers

Larry Bird's master plan for rebuilding the Pacers took a major blow this offseason when Bird willingly sacrificed one of his slow white players (Troy Murphy) in return for two African American players (Darren Collison and James Posey). It was a rare smart move by Bird, which makes me wonder whether he fell asleep at the Trade Machine, accidentally mashed some keys, and didn't wake up in time to cancel the deal. Larry, what happened? Didn't you realize there are still some white players in the league who aren't on your roster? I mean, did you even try to sign Kyle Korver? What's going on here?!

In all seriousness, I like the Collison acquisition for Indy. This team has been searching for a reliable point guard since Mark Jackson left. That's been a long time, by the way. Danny Granger is a strong scorer who doesn't do much else. (Me being me, I don't like the fact that he shot 42 percent from the field last year. Plus his durability is in question -- Granger has missed 15 and 20 games the past two seasons.) After those two guys, the Pacers have...uhm...what exactly? Think about it. Think really, really hard. Don't pop a vein or anything, though.

That's what I'm talking about. In 2003-04, the Pacers finished 61-21, which was the best record in the league. In 2004-05, Ron Artest lost his mind and destroyed the team, maybe forever. Since The Malice at the Palace, the Pacers have won 44, 41, 35, 36, 36 and 32 games. This season, they'll probably be just plucky enough to win another 35 games or so. If Larry keeps this up, they'll be a 35-win team for the rest of the decade.

I've said it before: God hates the Pacers.

The Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are generating some serious darkhorse buzz. And on paper, there's reason for optimism. Their starting lineup -- Brandon Jennings, John Salmons, Corey Maggette, Drew Gooden and Andrew Bogut -- are projected to be worth about 100 PPG this season. Plus, the Bucks have some reserves (Carlos Delfino, Luc Richard Mbah A Moute, Kenyon Dooling and Chris Douglas-Roberts) who can make some noise off the bench. And hey, what if Michael Redd regains what is known as "human function" in his surgically repaired knee? The sky is the limit, dear readers.

Oh, who am I kidding? Last season, Scott Skiles somehow kept from losing his shit despite the wildly misdirected shooting of Brandon Jennings. This year, he's going to have to deal with perennial underachievers in Maggette and Gooden. I can tell you from experience that Skiles doesn't handle underachievers very well. If his head hasn't exploded -- Scanners-style! -- by the trade deadline, we need to check his basement for Body Snatcher pods.

Should other NBA teams "Fear the Deer"? Maybe. The team's got talent (although I wonder where their three-point shooting is going to come from). And they overachieved last season even in the face of adversity and injuries. My take: This team looks better on paper than it actually is. The Bucks could win 45 games or so -- have you taken a look around the Eastern Conference? Blech! -- but do you think guys on the Celtics, Heat or Magic are quaking in their very expensive sneakers? Yeah. Me neither.

Labels: Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA season preview

The Boston Celtics

Last season, Boston's two biggest problems were age and injuries. Their offseason response was to get older and more injury prone with the acquisitions of Shaq and Jermaine "The Drain" O'Neal. Remember: The 2009-10 Celtics were only a few baskets away from winning Game 7 of the NBA Finals on the road against a pretty good Lakers team. So how seriously should we take the 2010-11 Celtics? Let me put it this way: Even die-hard Boston fans have to answer that question by saying, "If Shaq and/or Jermaine O'Neal can just..."

That's right. All it's going to take is for Shaq and The Drain the make an actual, basketball-related impact on their new team. Mind you, this is something they've utterly failed to do in each of the last couple stops of the NBA careers. Shaq sunk the Seven Seconds or Less Era in Phoenix before helping Cleveland lose LeBron James forever.

As for The Drain, he got passed around like a hot potato after the Pacers finally suckered somebody into taking his giant contract off their bloodstained hands, and he was declared legally deceased during Miami's one-round playoff run last season. Mind you, it was the Celtics are the team who eliminated the Heat, so they got to watch his playoff implosion up close. How bad was he? Well, he went 9-for-44 from the field, his PER was 2.5 and he finished the series with an Offensive Rating of 57. Oh, and in Miami's elimination game, he grabbed only two defensive rebounds.

But you know what? I don't see those shambling mounds as Boston's biggest problems. As a Celtics fan, I'm much more worried about the fact that Rajon Rondo still can't hit jump shots with consistency or knock down clutch free throws. Those two factors may very well have cost the Celts the 2010 NBA title. Speaking of things that may have cost Boston the title, how about Ray Allen's playoff shooting slump? Look, shooters slump, I get that. But Allen's have been getting worse, lasting longer and are becoming more critical because they're happening during the playoffs. Are these things going to get better by tacking on another year and more miles to his odometer? On top of those factors, now that Tony Allen is marinating in the Grizzlies locker room, who's going to hound the Kobes and LeBrons of the world?

And let's not forget the C's lost their defensive guru, Tom Thibodeau, to the Chicago Bulls.

Look, the Celtics are going to win their division. Mostly because the other teams in the Atlantic are the crappiest of the crappy crap (see below). And they'll definitely be dangerous come playoff time, assuming everybody remains relatively healthy. But the 2010 Finals proved that championships are won and lost by the slimmest of margins. The Celtics just have too many question marks and what ifs.

The New Jersey Nyets

Last season, the Nyets managed only 12 wins and needed a late-season run -- if you can consider five wins in their last 12 games a "run" -- to avoid becoming the worst team (in terms of wins and losses) in NBA history. Still, as horrific as the season was -- poor Brook Lopez has permanent handprints on his face from all the facepalming he did last year -- all the losing was supposed to have a happy ending. After all, New Jersey had stockpiled cap space for the summer's free agent bonanza and their record practically made them a mortal lock for the number one overall draft pick. If they could just win the draft lottery and select John Wall...

...only they didn't win the draft lottery. They got the third pick, which they used to select Derrick Favors, a kid with decent long-term potential but little chance of making an impact this season. Other key acquisitions include Travis Outlaw, Anthony Morrow, Troy Murphy, Quinton Ross, Jordan Farmar, Stephen Graham, Joe Smith's corpse and Johan Petro (for $10 million over three years...WTF?!).

I'm have absolutely no idea what kind of Frankenstein's monster new GM Billy King (a.k.a. the guy who once destroyed the Philadelphia 76ers) expects new coach Avery Johnson to build out of this freaky warehouse of scrap parts. But I can't wait to find out.

But you know what the best part is? After last year's near-record setting failfest, there's virtually no way the Nyets can't improve this season. Even a conservative estimate of, say, 24 wins would be an enormous improvement. So expect better days in New Jersey. Relatively speaking.

The New York Knicks

During the offseason, the Bricks spent $100 million on Amar''''''e Stoudemire. Which would be fine if Amar''''''e wasn't a total fraud.

Okay, okay. That's not fair. Stoudemire isn't a total fraud. The guy is a stud on offense, ranking 5th in free throw attempts (632), 7th in field goal percentage (.557) and 10th in points per game (23.1). However, most of those sparkling stats came at the end of an assist from Steve Nash. In Phoenix, Amar''''''e lived off the variety of dunks, layups and pick-and-pops that Nash created. Conversely, Stoudemire was at his absolute worst when trying to create offense on his own. Unless he could simply blow by his man and not encounter any help defense at the rim, the dude looked like a baby deer trying to run on ice skates. STAT isn't a creator, he's a finisher. What's he going to finish in New York? Other than the hopes and dreams of Knicks fans everywhere. Assuming those suckers have any hopes and dreams left.

Stoudemire cowers from defensive rebounds the way Ron Artest shrinks away from giant snake eggs. And his answer to "defense" is to either leap out of the way matador style or reach in with the awkward clumsiness of a teenage boy groping his first real breast, which is why he ranked 5th in personal fouls last season (281).

The point is: If Amar''''''e is the foundation of your team -- the unquestioned heart and soul -- then your team is officially f***ed. I fully expect Stoudemire to become this season's premier 20-10-50 guy.

Knicks hopefuls might want to point out that Donnie Walsh flipped David "All O, No D" Lee for Anthony Randolph, Ronny Turiaf and Kelenna Azubuike. I would remind those people that the team's starting point guard is Raymond Felton (a poor pick-and-roll player) and the team doesn't have much in the way of consistent, high-percentage three-point shooting. These things do not play to Stoudemire's strengths.

In other words: Expect New York's playoff drought to continue.

The Philadelphia 76ers

Year Two of The Elton Brand Era saw the Sixers win only 27 games and finish tied for the third-worst record in the Eastern Conference. According to the Pythagorean Wins calculated by Basketball-Reference.com, Philly was better than only the following teams: New Jersey, Minnesota, The Other L.A. Team, Detroit and Washington. That's a real rogue's gallery of suck, right there.

During 2009-10, the Sixers should have worn masks with question marks on them, because the team had no identity whatsoever. I mean, they were supposed to be a running team yet finished the season ranked 22nd in Pace and 23rd in PPG. Furthermore, they ranked 22nd in three-point percentage (.343) and their inside game was anchored by Elton Brand, who was granted Living Statue status by the world's leading statueologists. Basically, there really wasn't much of anything this team did particularly well. Other than lose, that is.

Now ask yourself this: Has anything of major significance changed from last season to this season? Flipping Sammy Dalembert for Andres Nocioni and Spencer Hawes makes the team...whiter...I guess. Number two overall pick Evan Turner was a summer league disappointment. And as for new coach Doug Collins, well, did you see his last two seasons as a head coach in Washington? He lost the trust of every player on that team not named Michael Jordan, and that was only because he was Jordan's Yes Man.

Which is why the quarterback battle between Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick is the only real ray of hope Philadelphia fans have right now.

Sorry, Philadelphia fans.

The Toronto Raptors

Last season, Chris Bosh ranked 6th in the league in rebounds per game (10.8), 7th in free throw attempts (590) and 9th in points per game (24.0). He was also 4th in Player Efficiency Rating (25.0), trailing only LeBron James (31.1), Dwyane Wade (28.0) and Kevin Durant (26.2). Of course, Bosh put together what was probably his best statistical season during a contract year while playing for a Raptors team that failed to make the playoffs. But those are just facts, so feel free to discard them.

(Reality check: Bosh ranked 7th in the league with 7.9 Offensive Win Shares, yet ranked only 19th overall with 9.6 Win Shares. For those of you who enjoy simple math, that means Bosh had only 1.7 Defensive Win Shares during his best statistical season. How is that possible? I'm sure it had nothing whatsoever to do with him gunning it on offense to improve his free agent standing.)
Anyway, even though Bosh was lighting it up -- at the offensive end, anyway -- the Raptors still floundered down the stretch and missed the postseason (thanks largely to an injury to Bosh). When Bosh decided to take his talents to South Beach, it was done to a massive chorus of "Good riddance!!" from Canadians everywhere. And yet...

...Bosh's departure has made Toronto's roster one of the most depressing sights in the league. Their best returning players (Andrea Bargnani, DeMar DeRozan and Jose Calderon) strike fear in no one's heart (unless you count their fantasy owners). Their new additions (Leandro Barbosa, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza and draft pick Ed Davis) would be decent pickups for a team that was already pretty good. But the Raptors aren't pretty good. And this season, they might even be the worst team in the league.

Labels: Atlantic Division, Boston Celtics, NBA season preview, New Jersey Nets, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors

My epic NBA season preview spectacular on Deadspin is still silently stalking the upcoming basketball season the way Jason Voorhees hunts down large-breasted camp counselors. Only my previews offer a sightly better surival rate. But don't run up the stairs or hide in the basement! Your very life -- and my page view bonus -- may very well depend on it.

Orlando Magic
Philadelphia 76ers
Portland Trailblazers
Sacramento Kings
Toronto Raptors

Also, in continuing coordinated conjunction with CelticsBlog, here are the previews for the Southeast Division. And hey, it looks like I wasn't the only sucker brave soul willing to preview the Hawks...

Atlanta Hawks
Matt McHale: Basketbawful
Hoopinion: Peachtree Hoops

Charlotte Bobcats
BrettL: Queen City Hoops
Ziggy: BobcatsPlanet

Miami Heat
Darren Heitner: SportsAgentBlog.com
Gregory Broome: The Peninsula is Mightier

Orlando Magic
Ben: Third Quarter Collapse

Washington Wizards
Rashad: Hoops Addict
HoopsAvenue: HoopsAvenue
Mike Prada: Bullets Forever
Truth: Truth About It Dot Net

Labels: CelticsBlog, Deadspin, NBA season preview

My NBA season preview extravaganza on Deadspin keeps rolling on, like a giant boulder tumbling down a long hill and, like, smashing people and houses and stuff. Don't defy its power. Click the links.

New York Knicks
Oklahoma City Thunder
Orlando Magic
Phoenix Suns

And, in association with CelticsBlog, here are the Northwest Division previews.

Denver Nuggets
Jeremy: Pickaxe and Roll
Nick Sclafani: The Nugg Doctor

Minnesota Timberwolves
Derek Hanson & Staff: TWolves Blog
Andrew Thell: Empty the Bench
wyn: Canis Hoopus

Oklahoma City
xphoenix87: BallerBlogger
Zorgon: Blue Blitz
Royce: The Thunderworld

Portland Trail Blazers
Mookie: ...a stern warning
Benjamin Golliver: Blazers Edge
Coup and SJ: Rip City Project

Utah Jazz
UtesFan89: The Utah Jazz
Basketball John: SLC Dunk

Labels: 30 previews in 30 days, CelticsBlog, giant boulders, NBA season preview

This is my entry for the 2008-2009 blogger preview series organized by CelticsBlog. You can get the full list and schedule of previews here. Note that I offered to preview whichever team no one else wanted to preview. This is that team...

Team Name: The Atlanta Hawks (a.k.a. Atlanta's Air Force!)

Last Year's Record: Finished 37-45, third in the Southeast Division and eighth in the East.

Key Loss: Josh "The Greek Benedict Arnold" Childress (only he's not really Greek)

(Sort of) Key Additions: Maurice Evans, Flip "4 Ur Luv" Murray, Randolph Morris, Othello Hunter

1. What significant moves were made during the offseason? Josh Smith -- the team's second-leading scorer (17.2) and rebounder (8.2) -- re-signed for $58 million over the summer. (But only after signing an offer sheet to play with the Memphis Grizzlies.) Maurice Evans was brought in to replace Josh Childress. (Good luck with that, guys.) The Hawks also tried to add some front court depth with the acquisitions of Randolph Morris and Othello Hunter. (The key word here being "tried.")

2. What are the team's biggest strengths? Their starting five of Mike Bibby, Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Smith and Al Horford is solid (particularly in the East). And Bibby -- whose "sore thumb" is fully healed -- has now been through training camp with his 'mates and should be fully integrated into Mike Woodson's offensive and defensive schemes. This should lead to improved chemistry, especially with backcourt buddy Joe Johnson, and hopefully a general improvement in team defense (which definitely de-improved after Bibs was acquired last February). They're an "energy" team that can push the tempo and crash the offensive boards. They play really tough at home, where some actual fans were sighted last season, along with at least one Bigfoot. (However, one or both sightings might have been a hoax.) Their confidence is sky high after the way they "pushed" the Celtics in the first round of last year's playoffs.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses? Losing Josh Childress will affect the Hawks both on the basketball court and [insert Bill Walton voice here] on the court of the mind. Smith might still be a little bitter over how his contract negotiations were handled. (He had to sign an offer sheet with the Grizzlies for God's sake.) Their bench is about as deep as a puddle on a 98-degree day. Offensively, they're very inconsistent due to their "on again, off again" running game and streaky jump shooting. (Johnson, the team's leading scorer, hit only 43 percent of his field goals in 2007-08.) Their three-point marksmanship is herbal tea weak (35 percent as a team last season). In fact, their best shooter is Mark Price. Assistant coach Mark Price, that is. They don't always go all-out, especially on the road, where they were 12-29 last season. They seem to be thinking a little too highly of themselves right now, due mostly to that first-round slugfest with Boston (more on this below).

4. What are the goals for this team? They need to avoid complacency and build on the momentum they sparked at the end of last season when they were fighting tooth and nail to make the playoffs. They also need to reestablish the defensive mindset they started the 2007-08 campaign with. And, most importantly, they need to stay focused and go full-tilt every game. Their starting five is solid but not great, they lack depth, and -- no offense to Joe Johnson -- they don't have a superstar in tow. This means that anything less than 100 percent effort can and will doom them on any given night.

5. Are they simply a one-season tease? We've all seen it before. A team gets hot at the end of the regular season, sneaks into the playoffs, makes some noise, and so everybody expects them to take The Next Big Step next season. But when said team is flawed -- as the Hawks are -- this often leads to overconfidence and failed expectations. The most recent example of this is the Golden State Warriors. The 2007-08 Warriors may have won a few more games than the 2006-07 Warriors, but they failed to recapture the magic of that '07 playoff run. I think we're going to see the same thing happen to the Hawks this season. Especially since that seven-game series with the Celtics wasn't as close as everybody seems to think: The champs absolutely crushed them in Boston whereas the Hawks pulled out three could-have-gone-either-way victories at home.

Predicted Record: 40-42

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, NBA season preview

Here are the links to my latest batch of NBA season previews on Deadspin, brought to you in that irreverent, hard-hitting style that only Basketbawful can deliver! I'm not saying that clicking on these links will save lives, but it will. It so totally will.

Memphis Grizzlies
Miami Heat
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Jersey Nets
New Orleans Hornets

And let's not forget the Central Division previews organized by CelticsBlog. I'll be posting my Atlanta Hawks preview for this series tomorrow.

Chicago Bulls
Nels: Give Me The Rock
Matt: Blog-a-Bull

Cleveland Cavaliers
Rock: Waiting For Next Year
FTS: Fear The Sword
David Friedman: 20 Second Timeout
Amar Panchmatia: Cavalier Attitude

Detroit Pistons
Brian Spencer: Empty the Bench
Natalie Sitto: Need4Sheed.com
Matt Watson: Detroit Bad Boys

Indiana Pacers
Tom: Indy Cornrows

Milwaukee Bucks
Jeramey Jannene: The Bratwurst
Frank Madden: BrewHoop

Labels: Deadspin, NBA season preview, Peja Stojakovic's head on a stick

In case you haven't been keeping up with them -- and shame on you, if that's the case -- here are links to my latest NBA season previews on Deadspin. Harsh yet realistic appraisals! Fun facts! Amusing videos! Shameless self-promotion! (Wait. That's here. Never mind.)

Denver Nuggets
Detroit Pistons
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets
Indiana Pacers
Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers

Here are the Southwest Division previews organized by CelticsBlog.



Dallas Mavericks

Jake Kerr: Mavs Moneyball

Houston Rockets

grungedave and UofTOrange: The Dream Shake

Memphis Grizzlies

Joshua Coleman: 3 Shades of Blue

New Orleans Hornets

Rohan: At the Hive

ticktock6 & mW: Hornets Hype

Ryan Schwan & Ron Hitley: Hornets247.com

San Antonio Spurs

Graydon Gordian: 48 Minutes of Hell

Also see links to all the previews at CelticsBlog.com

Labels: CelticsBlog, Deadspin, NBA season preview

I can't explain this picture, but I know awesome when I see it.
In case you missed 'em, here are the last handful of NBA season previews I wrote for Deadspin:

Charlotte Bobcats
Chicago Bulls
Cleveland Cavaliers
Update! Dallas Mavericks

Moreover, I'm participating in the CelticsBlog season previews (I'll be doing the Atlanta Hawks later this month). Here are links to the Atlantic Division previews:

Boston Celtics
Jeff Clark: CelticsBlog.com
Jim Weeks: Green Bandwagon
FLCeltsFan: LOY's Place
John Karalis: Red's Army
Dustin Chapman: Celtics 24/7

New Jersey Nets
Dennis Velasco: About Basketball

New York Knicks
Joey: Straight Bangin'
Seth Rosenthal: Posting and Toasting

Philadelphia 76ers
Dannie & Pete: Recliner GM
Jon Burkett: Passion and Pride

Toronto Raptors
Franchise: RaptorsHQ.com
Ryan McNeill: Hoops Addict
Cuzzy: Cuzoogle

Labels: CelticsBlog, Charlotte Bobcats, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Deadspin, Dirk Nowitzki, guitar hate, NBA season preview

Important reminder! Check out my season preview for the Boston Celtics on Deadspin.

Labels: Boston Celtics, mucho crazy, NBA season preview, The Tao of Ron Artest

Appetizing, right?
My 30 Previews In 30 Days feature began today on Deadspin. First up: Atlanta's Air Force! Check in every day for a new preview and fabulous cash prizes! (Note: 50 percent of the last sentence was a damn lie.) Each team will be covered in alphabetical order, and every post will be filled with useful information as well as fun facts and historical trivia. Remember: Tips aren't required, but they are appreciated.

Labels: 30 previews in 30 days, Deadspin, NBA season preview, vampires

You can expect a more elaborate and thorough set of previews in October, but for now, here are my gut feelings about the upcoming NBA season, vomited up in glorious Basketbawful-o-Vision!

Atlanta Hawks: Fact: This team will not be crippled by Josh Childress' defection to Greece. Rather, they will be crippled by the fact that they are still and will always be the Atlanta Hawks. I guess what I'm trying to say is the Hawks are the East's answer to the Clippers.

Boston Celtics: Will Darius Miles be more like the 1985-86 Bill Walton or the 2007-08 Darius Miles? It could be the former but I'm betting on the latter.

Charlotte Bobcats: They are one "unbelievable breakout season" from Adam Morrison away from contending for 40 wins.

Chicago Bulls: Good to see they finally addressed that inside scoring problem. Oh, wait...

Cleveland Cavaliers: I'm sorry, but the arrival of Mo Williams -- a.k.a. "The Second Coming of Larry Hughes" -- changes nothing except who gets to stand around on the perimeter waiting for LeBron to kick the ball back out.

Dallas Mavericks: Quick quiz: Who is more mobile at this point, Jason Kidd or Stephen Hawking? Think about it before answering.

Denver Nuggets: Get ready for this mindbender: The Nuggets could actually be worse on defense this season. And replace "could be" with "most definitely and positively will be."

Detroit Pistons: I'm not sure yet whether they'll lose to Boston or Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals. I could be totally wrong about this, though. They might lose to Philly instead.

Golden State Warriors: To quote Clubber Lang: Dead meat.

Houston Rockets: Adding Ron Artest to this team is like watching a Mad Scientist mix random chemicals together. Maybe he'll create Wonderflonium, maybe he'll destroy us all. Could be the former, but I'm betting on the latter. Plus, there's no way Yao is staying healthy all year.

Indiana Pacers: You know how the people of Chernobyl are still suffering horrible aftereffects of the nuclear disaster that happened all the way back in 1986? Well, Ron Artest was the Pacers' Chernobyl disaster, and the effects are still being felt to this day.

Los Angeles Clippers: Suggested team slogan for this year's Clipper team: "We are who you thought we were."

Los Angeles Lakers: They sure look like champions on paper. And I'd like to wipe my you-know-what with that paper.

Memphis Grizzlies: The arrival of Marc Gasol could very well mean an additional five wins, which would actually be a pretty big deal for the Grizzlies.

Miami Heat: Do you suppose Pat Riley would have stepped down -- or up, or whatever you want to call it -- if he'd had any idea how D-Wade was going to play in the Olympics? Yeah, me either. Expect a 25-game improvement and a dramatic first or second round playoff ouster.

Milwaukee Bucks: They have enough talent to trick some people into thinking they'll be halfway decent this season. Don't be one of those people.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Well...at least Antoine Walker's gone.

New Jersey Nets: Following this team will be like watching over a brain-dead relative sucking on life-support.

New Orleans Hornets: The won the James Posey lottery, but something tells me they're not quite ready to win it all yet. Also, they will go into a short slump around Mardi Gras.

New York Knicks: D'Antoni's "fun 'n gun" will be more pleasing to the eye than Isiah's "shamble 'n suck," but with Chris Duhon leading a squad that still includes Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry, I can't see the end result being that much different.

Oklahoma City Thunder: I refuse to acknowledge this team's existence. The "Win" column in the season standings will likely do the same.

Orlando Magic: Good to see they finally addressed their starting guard problems. Oh, wait...

Philadelphia 76ers: For some reason, I'm just not getting as excited about the Sixers as everybody else seems to be. Yeah, they got Elton Brand and all that, but something just feels...wrong...to me.

Phoenix Suns: Can I just say up front that I will personally hunt down and murder -- slowly but brutally -- every blogger and sports writer who uses a headline about this team that includes any variation of the words "sunrise" and/or "sunset." I am so not kidding about this.

Portland Trailblazers: I just get this weird feeling that waiting an extra year for Greg Oden's "rookie" season is going to be like waiting an extra week to open your Christmas presents and finding out all you got was a new winter coat, socks and underwear. Sure, you needed all that stuff, but...

Sacramento Kings: They will give you very few reasons to care.

San Antonio Spurs: Their string of every-other-year championships is over. Trust me on that.

Toronto Raptors: Jermaine O'Neal is not the answer. He just isn't.

Utah Jazz: They will be every bit as good as they were last season...during which they lost in the Western Conference Semifinals. That's right: It's Groundhog Day 2, starring the Utah Jazz!

Washington Wizards: Sure, they resigned Antawn Jamison and Agent Zero, but are they really any better than the teams that lost to the Cavaliers in the playoffs the last three years?

Labels: NBA season preview

Dallas Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki's summer vacation was all about travelling the world and engaging in meaningful introspection. Hopefully these experiences have provided him with the insight and perspective necessary to deal with this season's inevitable playoff disappointment. Oh, and somebody should tell Josh Howard that blindsiding Brad Miller doesn't make you tough.

Enver Nuggets: That isn't a typo. There's no "D" in Denver. Until that changes -- and trust me, it won't -- this team won't "contend" for anything more than 45-50 wins and a first-round playoff exit.

Golden State Warriors: Last year's Cinderella Team is going to be this year's floundering disappointment. Seriously, don't expect the Warriors to revive the magic of last year's late-season surge and improbable playoff run.

Houston Rockets: The Rockets really beefed up their team in the offseason, and they now feature a second unit of Mike James, Steve Francis, Luther Head, Bonzi Wells, and Dikembe Mutombo. As benches go, that one's not half bad; it's only about 2/5 bad. But until Yao Ming stays healthy for a full season and Tracy McGrady figures out how to close out a first-round playoff series, I'll hold off on preordering my Houston Rockets championship t-shirts.

And yes, I know they have a new coach and a new offensive philosophy. But Rick Adelman couldn't win a title while coaching some wildly talented teams in Portland and Sacramento. I can't say I have much confidence that's going to change now.

Los Angeles Clippers: No Elton Brand means no reason to follow the Clippers this season.

Los Angeles Lakers: Kobe, Kobe, Kobe. God, I'm sick of Kobe. Will he or won't he be traded? The drama never ends. But this team isn't going to be a contender with or without Kobe. Yes, yes...it's a good time to hate the Lakers.

Memphis Grizzlies: Ah, Memphis, the latest stop in the "Darko Milicic might finally fulfill his potential" tour. The Magic Eight Ball says "not likely." A lot of people expect Pau Gasol to have a big year since he's finally healthy and the team signed his best friend, Juan Carlos Navarro. But last time I checked, the team's starting point guard is still Damon Stoudemire, their starting center is still Stromile Swift, and Brian Cardinal still has three years and more than $18 million left on his contract. And I'm supposed to be excited about this team?

Minnesota Timberwolves: What a mess. Look, I'm not going to criticize the Kevin Garnett trade because it was waaaay past time to let KG go, and in return the 'Wolves got some promising young players, a couple first-round draft picks, and future salary relief. That's the best return-on-investment we've seen in any recent superstar trade (just ask the Lakers and 76ers). But dealing Ricky Davis and Mark Blount for Antoine Walker's mummified remains?! There are four years and almost $40 million left on his contract! Did Pat Riley slip Kevin McHale some roofies during their negotiations? Man, oh man...

Here's one sidenote to the McHale-as-GM Era. Garnett's defenders like to point out that the "only" time McHale gave KG some quality teammates -- specifically Sam Cassell and Latrell Spreewell -- the team won 58 games and made it to the Western Conference Finals. Somehow, this has become Exhibit A in the Case of Kevin McHale Sucks As A GM. But here’s the thing: Cassell and Spreewell were around the next season, too, and the team won only 44 games and failed to make the playoffs. That was because Sam and Spree were upset the team didn't immediately offer them lucrative contract extensions, and so they basically sandbagged the whole season. How exactly was that McHale's fault? And why doesn't anybody remember it?

New Orleans Hornets: Okay, real quick, name three Hornets who aren't named "Chris Paul." Yeah, didn't think so. Look, this team has some talented young players and a few moderately decent veterans. They'll win a few games they should've lost, lose several games they should've won, and end up right back in lottery after everything's said and done. End of story.

Phoenix Suns: The Suns really should have gone all-out to get Kevin Garnett in the offseason, even if it meant giving up Amare Stoudemire. They probably won't fully realize this until right after they lose Game 1 of the 2008 Western Conference Finals to the Spurs.

Portland Trailblazers: The Blazers lost their aging center before the season even started. Before, in fact, he had even played his first ever NBA game. We all wish Greg Oden a speedy recovery. I actually read one NBA season preview that said, "In Oden's absence, the Blazers will need a big contribution from Joel Przybilla." I promise you that the writer was completely serious, too. Anyway, if that's what the Blazers need, then you can officially relegate this season to being one long training camp for next season.

Sacramento Kings: Losing Mike Bibby for the first six-to-eight weeks of the regular season will really hurt the Kings' chances of winning 35-40 games and not making the playoffs. Now they'll probably win only 30-35 games and not make the playoffs. On the upside, I figure we're only about a month(ish) away from Ron Artest's next outburst / trade demand / psychotic episode.

San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan is the best player in the NBA, and has been for most of the last decade. There. I said it. Prepare for boring championship numero cinco of the Duncan Era. But look at the bright side, rest of the NBA. Maybe a meteor will hit Duncan's house.

Seriously, though, look at Duncan's team. Tony Parker is an excellent scorer but isn't proficient at running an offense (although, in that system, he really doesn't have to be). Manu Ginobili is really good at a lot of things and great at nothing (except for flopping, of course). Brent Barry, Bruce Bown, Michael Finley, and Robert Horry are all in their mid to late 30s. Their starting center is Fabricio Oberto. That backup point guard is Jacque Vaughn. You know why these guys all look as good as they do? Because Tim Duncan makes everybody better. Kobe should watch Duncan and take notes.

Seattle Supersonics: The city of Seattle is a pretty depressing place. It rains almost every day, the sun only shines five or six days per year, and it's cold most of the year. But damn it, at least the city has its Starbucks and the Supersonics! Oh, wait; they might not have the Sonics much longer. Hopefully Kevin Durant can thrill and entertain the fans during what may well be the team's farewell tour.

Utah Jazz: Rumor has it that Jerry Sloan has acquiesced to team owner Larry Miller's edict and is now complimenting Andre Kirilenko at least as often as he criticizes him. Sloan has also agreed to hand out unicorn stickers for every properly executed pick and roll and will bake cookies for any player who gets a DNP-CD.

Labels: NBA season preview, Western Conference