Man, wouldn't it be lame if he just stays with the cavs? All this hype over nothing... As a fan of basketball i prefer change. It makes the regular season less predictable. The more roster changes the better. the Johnson extension => boooring
After half a decade of clearing cap space, most of the teams will hang themselves AGAIN by overpaying FA's. Who says capitalism learns from its mistakes?
You know what's funny about this? No matter what he does, people are going to think he's a douchebag either way. He's either a douchebag for abandoning Cleveland, or he's a douchebag for helping create all this hype about his upcoming free agency and re-signs with Cleveland instead. I'm rooting for him to sign with New Jersey. The marketability of Prokorov, Jay Z, and LeBron would destroy the world as we know it, unless LeBron never wins any titles. I'd rather play with Harris and Lopez instead of Rose and Noah, I'd rather play for Avery Johnson instead of Thibideau, and I'd rather play for Prokorov and Jay Z instead of Reinsdorf.
Brooks nails it here: http://www.sportsbybrooks.com/someone-tell-king-james-to-put-on-some-clothes-28633
I mean, the whole idea of hijacking the playoffs and free agency for the last two years when he hasn't been able to get back to the Finals despite is gloriously annoying. That trip to the Finals was a fluke itself, since Cleveland and Detroit were the only 50 win teams in the East that year, and the Cavs had exactly 50.
I hate the Lakers, but when they lost to Boston in 2008, they came back pissed (except for the Houston series in 2009) and won it twice. Boston lost KG in 2009, got him back in 2010, limited minutes on everyone to rest them, and went to Game 7 of the Finals. Phoenix tried it with Shaq, failed, shipped him out, got Alvin Gentry and a bench, and got back to the Western Conference Finals. Orlando, despite getting Vince Carter, gets back to the Eastern Conference Finals. Not their fault "Ball" took the money and ran to a team that couldn't make the playoffs (seriously, whoever gives Chris Bosh max money should be fired).
My point is this, when teams that actually aspire to win the whole thing fail, they actually try to fix the problem. LeBron James has not addressed the problem, and at this point, I don't think that was ever his intention (that's what Brooks is insinuating, anyway). Firing Mike Brown, despite coaching them to the league's best record, and replacing him with a coach who is notorious for having his players quit on him is not the answer. (121-63, in New Orleans, in a playoff game, is the very definition of quitting). Firing Danny Ferry is not the answer, all he did was get the personnel that James needed to at least have a chance. James, like a spoiled brat, is making every team in the league come to his throne and kiss his feet and court him, like he is their savior, when he has yet to save anything but his ego (and he couldn't even do that, since the tape of the kid dunking on him was leaked anyway).
Here's another article: http://www.cavsnews.com/20100513-2930.php. Like it's Mike Brown's fault the MVP of the league and his teammates, who are all getting paid millions of dollars, couldn't bother to put up a fight in the biggest game of the season.
@Karc: Yeah fuck that stupid owner of the Cavali...What? LeBron isn't the Cavs owner?! Not even the GM? Well, at least he owns all the media in the States, right? Right?? Anyway, kudos to Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, and Paul Pierce on their awesome management skills and their off-season acquisitions (except Vag Carter)! I can't wait to see which big off-season move Steve Nash will pull off this year!!!
I don't blame Amare. All he likes to do is score. And he'll be scoring for 100M. Damn that's way too much money for one person. The Knicks are really sad, now they fucked everything up again. Lost every chance at LeBron and every chance to win.
LeBron can't join Bosh, because Bosh wants to be a "centerpiece". Talk about a douchebag. It's one thing saying you're good when you are actually good but...
LeBron can't join Wade because, I mean it just doesn't feel like those two would be happy in the same team. And without defensive bigs and some very good shooters it's far from a dream team anyway.
LeBron can't go to Chicago because everyone is saying that he should go there, and he is the king and the king does what he wants not what others tell him to do. Ah yes and cause of Michael Jordan.
So he'll stay in Cleveland. Booring.
Or go to the Nets! He could go to the Nets! They have some young talent and this russian guy who seems to be focused on winning. Imagine how everyone on that team would be so pumped up after that awful last season if LeBron would join them.
@Mladen - When Kobe Bryant publicly asked to be traded via a cell phone in a paking lot, the Lakers GM flat told him "no," then went out and got Derek Fisher and Pau Gasol. Dwight Howard's playing ability was publicly questioned by his coach, and he responded by getting his team to the Finals and the conference finals. Paul Pierce had to suffer for ten years with a bad team and "Shimmy" Walker, so despite losing in the second round last year and Game 7 of the Finals this year, he immediately signed an extension for far less than a max deal. Dirk Nowitzki wasted no time resigning with the Mavs, when he could have easily been an option to several teams. My point is that those players, despite being stars, are not in charge and do not pretend to be in charge of their teams, and certainly trust the people above them enough to let them do their job. There is little doubt that this whole thing is a big ego stroke for LeBron James, and yet the guy has not won anything.
BTW, I was in NY this weekend and I saw the Jay-Z/Prokhorov billboard near MSG with my own eyes. It was awesome. Took pics, but it's no different than any pic you've seen. In person, it looks almost half cartoony, with "Mike"'s smile looking even smuggier. Again, amazing.
You forgot the "Lebron James is a douche" tag on this post, I've edited it in for you =).
I don't blame Amare. All he likes to do is score. And he'll be scoring for 100M. Damn that's way too much money for one person. The Knicks are really sad, now they fucked everything up again. Lost every chance at LeBron and every chance to win.
LeBron can't join Bosh because Bosh wants to be a "centerpiece". Talk about a douchebag. It's one thing saying you're good when you are actually good but...
LeBron can't join Wade because, I mean it just doesn't feel like those two would be happy in the same team. And without defensive bigs and some very good shooters it's far from a dream team anyway.
LeBron can't go to Chicago because everyone is saying that he should go there, and he is the king and the king does what he wants not what others tell him to do. Ah yes and cause of Michael Jordan.
So he'll stay in Cleveland. Booring.
Or go to the Nets! He could go to the Nets! They have some young talent and this russian guy who seems to be focused on winning. Imagine how everyone on that team would be so pumped up after that awful last season if LeBron would join them.
Breaking news! In the free agent transaction you all are dying to know about.. the Orlando Magic agree to a 4 year, $15M deal with point guard Chris Duhon. ...Yeah.
"From Nowitzki's perch, there are only two players who could be added to the Mavericks' roster that would make the ultimate difference -- LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. 'I see it this way, if you don't get LeBron and you don't get Wade, are you going to give the max to somebody else and lock yourself in with a player who's not going to get you over the hump?' Nowitzki said. 'You got to be a little careful with locking yourself into something with a max contract with somebody that's going to give you 55 wins, and you're still going to lose in the second or third round. So to me, if you could get Wade or LeBron, you got to go for it. But other than that, it's tough. You don't want to completely screw the organization over for four or five years if it's not going to put it over the top.'"
While this IS true, is Nowitzki saying basically "Hi Dallas, thanks for paying me a bunch for 55 wins and an early exit" ??
Good God. Per Bill Simmons on Twitter reacting to the news that the Magic just threw a boatload of money at Chris Duhon: "Gortat/Bass/Duhon: 15 mil per year combined. A bizarre use of resources." Indeed.
@Karc: Dude, seriously, just honestly tell me: when did LeBron start doin' the GM's job? Seriously. Because he rooted for them to get Jamison instead of STATue? That was just common sense. Because he stuck up for Varegina and Pavlovic when their contracts were up? Okay, that was stupid of him, but in neither of those cases did he start acting like he owned the team, or making ultimatums. Your comment about Kobe doesn't work in your favor, either. He wanted to be traded, or for them to trade Bynum and some other guys away and get him some firepower, which they did. (And they managed to achieve that without losing Bynum or other valuable parts of the team.) How is he not an asshole, then?!
Let me try and shorten this discussion, because I often find myself defending LeBron, and I don't like it. I'm not his die-hard fan, but reactions like yours just get to me. All you people seem to mostly be pissed because of the media attention he gets. Well, newsflash for ya: He's one of the best active basketball players. He is bound to get attention, whether he likes it, or not. That's the way it's been since high school. He didn't ask for this shit, he just played basketball, and gave it all he got. All the extra media attention right now (and in the past couple of years) surrounding his possible departure from Cleveland, is again a result of the dumbass journalists, who have nothing better to do, then to glorify him. The thing you guys have to get, is that it's not LeBron, jumping into the spotlight, sending the reporters messages, and ordering articles about himself. Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds?
P.S.: The Knicks are back! Back to overpaying for underachieving players, that is...
Mladen: That's revisionist history at best, extremely inaccurate at worst. When Kobe decided he'd rather play "on Pluto" than with the Lakers, Kupchak obliged him. I can't believe that it's only been 3 years since this happened and people have forgotten, but Kupchak and the Bulls agreed to a trade before Kobe vetoed it. Kupchak getting Fisher was a gift from God.
Kobe doesn't trust Kupchak to do his job and in his defense, he probably shouldn't. Kupchak's been on a pretty good run ever since the Cook for Ariza heist, but before that point he was arguably the single worst GM in the league, which is impressive considering that Isiah and McHale were still employed at the time.
@Anonymous: That's all really swell, but I fail to see the point. If anybody tried to "play GM", it was Kobe. The fact that Kupchak "obliged" him somehow makes all the difference? Nobody had to force LeBron to do anything. He stuck with the Cavs while they were still shitty, waited it out, and still hasn't won a title (some of the blame is on him, though), and now he's simply considering his options. It's not his fault that the media is having a field day. It would be much easier on the guy himself, if he could just quietly choose a team to play for, without people shouting "Asshole!" on every corner...
"It's not his fault that the media is having a field day"
It kinda is. He's been touting free agency since last year and going on and on about certain teams he may go to. Then in January he abruptly said that he won't talk about it any more. At that point its like listening to a lecture on anal rape and then told at the end of the lecture not to think about anal rape.
Even when he's been "silent" about it, his camp has been churning out bizarre trade scenarios just to keep everyone guessing. If he truly didn't want this insanity he should have shut the fuck up from the beginning. He's the ring master to this circus of douche baggery and will continue to milk it until he finally decides.
No matter where he goes though, GMs that have cleared space will start signing mid level players to ridiculous contracts. We already have Amare, Joe Johnson, and Chris "I can't believe i'm still in the NBA" Duhon. This will probably be 10 times worse once Wade, Bosh and James make their decision.
@Mladen - Kobe Byrant is an asshole. He is used to winning, he hates losing, and reacted as such when he was losing for years. Kupchak could have easily sent Bryant to the Clippers, and if you want a sneak preview of the results, watch Amar'e first two years in New York. Bryant may have tried to play GM, and was shut down (by Buss, Jackson, Kupchak, Magic, maybe all of them). Much as I hate the Lakers, when you'll dealing with GMs who are stupid enough to give away good players for picks and money, well, you get Ariza and Gasol on a title team.
LeBron James is the biggest asshole in the league. Anyone who tells his mother to "sit her ass down" on Mother's Day on a nationally televised game is going to get that label for life. He's never won, has zero justification for this circus despite his play. Yet no one is trying to stop this ego-trip (again, Kobe had at least three people in LA who were far more successful than he basically telling him to STFU). He has the owner and the town in his pocket. The two guys who could have done something have been fired. And yes, Lebron is completely enabling it. Go to his website - "You'll be the first to know." He went to his own "LeBron Appreciation Day." Wearing the Yankees hat. There's a myriad of things he's done to encourage the media attention.
My point is that of all the top guys that may have had the power to dictate who joins his team, he should be way down the list. But he's acting like he should be at the top. Dirk actually won games in the Finals, but he resigned right away. Pierce won Finals MVP, and he's right back with Boston. Wade can listen to offers, because he has a ring and a Finals MVP, but he's only talking to Chicago because it's his hometown. Joe Johnson, not so much, but if the Hawks are dumb enough to offer max money on the second day, he should take it.
I completely agree with you on the media coverage. Screamin' A. Smith and Ric Bucher have no business reporting on the NBA when they contradict themselves on a daily basis. But they wouldn't have to if James had said two years ago "I'm staying in Cleveland." Then we can just bash the media trying to get him out of Ohio. That's certainly more fun than this. This is just groan-inducing.
@Heretic: Again, (wow, I feel like I'm talking to one person, instead of three...), that's your impression, i.e. your problem. I'm sure you could dig up some article where LeBron says something vague about free agency and maybe about being a fan of Jay-Z or something like that, but you have some serious issues, if that's the kind of thing that annoys you. The thing that annoys everyone, including me, are the sportswriters, who just can't come up with anything more interesting, so they just keep chewing on the same "story" for years. And, of course, they went into afterburner mode as soon as the post-season ended...That was to be expected, but, again, not LeBron's fault. I mean, I'm a much bigger fan of team basketball (I loved what the Celtics did in 2008., and I love how the OKC are looking right now), and I am a huuuge fan of Dwyane Wade, but guys like you, with your "LeBron is an asshole simply for existing, and I will attribute everything that pisses me off to his doing" actually make me yearn for him to win at least 6 titles, and shut you up for good...if you can sometimes admit you're a little bit wrong.
Going to have to go with Mladen here. As much as I don't enjoy this circus, I don't think LeBron is as responsible for it as others would like to make him. Sportswriters need something to write about, and the money incentives of LeBron and the NBA are such that they aren't going to stop this.
Karc, your comments on LeBron are either irrelevant or insubstantial. To say that "[LeBron]'s never won" and "has zero justification for this circus" is absolutely silly. He is by far the biggest contributor to the Cavaliers' success the past few seasons. Beyond that, the playoffs inherently have a lot of randomness to them. That's one reason the Cavs got to the Finals, and it's one reason they've had "early" exits the past couple seasons (although really, I don't think there's much shame in being one of the last four teams playing). By many measures, LeBron is a statistical marvel. Your criticisms rely on how his team has performed, but we all know he's just one part. I know you're settling in as a resident troll, but please incorporate some modern thought on basketball statistics.
Oh and as for Lebron is not responsible, i'm bundling his camp under the "Lebron" banner. You can't tell me that world wide wes and carter have not been hyping the hell out of free agency. Almost of every other day one of the two blabs about another possibility. You can say "Well they're not Lebron" but fact of the matter is one word from the golden goose to shut the fuck up and his entire camp would go silent.
But noooooo he's quite happy letting them yammer on about the possibility that he may team up with Marvin the Martian for Space Jam 2 - The Revenge, while he meekly shrugs his shoulders. So fuck Lebron and as far as him winning 6 championships, unless they surround him with 2 or more all stars I don't see that happening any time soon.
Plus you're forgetting that in new york he made the cavs management shit a brick and the knicks cream their panties by saying just wait for July *wink* *wink* and went to make passive aggressive comments about free agency WHILE it was a almost a year away.
Never liked the whole "random" and "luck" scenarios people toss around concerning the playoffs. There are a possible 7 games you can play to prove you are the better team. If you can't do that then clearly, you are not the better team. Celtics were better in the East and Lakers were better in the west. Not lucky or randomly got better match ups but the overall better teams.
@DKH - The Cavs got to the Finals because the Eastern Conference was incredibly weak that year. There were only two teams that had won 50 games, the Pistons and the Cavs. Once they had to play a team with actual talent (i.e. San Antonio), they were quickly swept. I have NEVER heard rumors of Tim Duncan opting out of a contract because he could not win in the playoffs.
Agree that there is no shame in being one of the four teams, except when in one year, they had the best record and homecourt throughout and could not get to the Finals, and the other year, they did not even get to the "Final Four" because they were beat by an experienced team, helped by the "superstar" quitting in a pivotal game 5 at home. I did not see the Lakers quit when they had to play Game 5 in Boston of a tied series (they lost, but it was certainly a winnable game). Orlando had Game 5 at home against the Celtics and blew them out.
Yes, LeBron is a statical marvel. A marvel that has netted ZERO rings. As was discussed in other places here, having a superstar building up stats has incredible relevance on how a team performs. In that it completely demoralizes them. I hate to make the reference, but take Game 7 of the Finals. Kobe was stinking out the joint, so he drove to the basket to get free throws and let the others start taking shots. Not an accident they scored 30 in that last quarter to win the game.
And how are my comments about this being a circus irrelevant when this is about to happen - http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5359255
"LeBron James is planning to announce the team with which he will sign during a one-hour special on ESPN Thursday night, ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard has learned through independent sources."
Add "BrouTard" to the list of people that should not be reporting on the NBA. Really, an ESPN event to announce where LeBron James will be playing games on ESPN? How ego serving is that?! A full hour for a 2-minute statement. Are you kidding me? Look, I've said from the start that ESPN has been the absolute worst with this nonsense, but LeBron is completely enabling it. What justification is there for this, other than the incessant hype by ESPN and LeBron James over the last two years while everyone else who actually put up a fight in the Finals has either quietly re-signed with their teams or won the title and have no reason to leave? Are we supposed to put this up there with Air Jordan coming back, or Magic announcing that he has HIV and has to retire from the game? And those were on ESPNews. This is on the "mother ship." If someone wants to defend this, go for it. I'd sooner root for Kobe than this clown. At least he WINS.
LeBron is a Basketball God you haters! How dare you insinuate otherwise! He is a Basketball God because the media says so! It doesn't matter if he doesn't have any rings! 'Sides he would've won the championship if those refs had been calling it right!
ugh... I just vomitted in my own mouth...
@Karc- "LeBron James is planning to announce the team with which he will sign during a one-hour special on ESPN Thursday night, ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard has learned through independent sources."
WTF!This for real? If it is, I just found a new reason to hate the news media.
Are you serious? The randomness is basic statistics. Say we go into a best-of-seven playoff series knowing one team will win 2/3 of the games they play, but we don't know which team. The worse team will still win the series 1 out of 5 times. It would take a 23-game series before we could be 95% confident that the better team was identified.
If the probability difference isn't as sharp as 2/3 to 1/3, the number of games increases rapidly. Take a 55-45 probability for one team winning/losing to another. In this case, the worse team wins the series about 40% of the time, and a 269-game series is necessary so that the worse team wins the series only 5% of the time.
For a more in-depth explanation, see "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives" by Leonard Mlodinow.
Oh God... WTF LeBron?! It's like he read DKH's comments and mine, and said: "Fuck no, bitches, you totally don't get it! I love the attention!"... I have to admit that a one-hour "LeBron special" is fucking too much... I mean, I could go with the "media's own agenda" argument here again, but no, I won't. This is on him.
I'm sad to see that he's hopping on that train. I agree that you need a little more NBA cred, before you can actually take over all the sports news in an entire country. Still, as egoistic as this is, let's not forget: of all the players in this league right now, he's the only guy whose game screams "title material!"(I'm not counting Wade, because he already won). Just as everybody was tensely waiting for MJ's first ring, now there are a lot of people waiting for the inevitable moment, when James wins it. And face it: you guys are part of those people, too, with the exception of wishing he never wins one. You're following this as closely as you can, and wondering where he'll end up. Not to mention that I know the Laker fans here have more at stake - a possible three-peat, which could be thwarted if James teams up with one of the two other guys. (If he, on the other hand, made a stuuupid mistake, like going to NY, to play with STATue, you guys would be set for life...)
As for the non-LeBron news:
Kwame Brown!?!?!? Whyyyyyy???
Also, check this out, from NBA.com's "Rookie Ladder":
"Stephenson takes a step down Tuesday only because Harangody is hustling. Stephenson got dinged up a couple times in the Pacers' loss to the Nets, but still finished with 15 points on 7-for-110 shooting. With every game, the Pacers brass must be getting more and more giddy with their pick."
Wow you are really getting angry at the kid. Maybe it's different for me because I'm not in the US so I get the news only if I look for them.
I don't know why you mix this up with the comparisons to Kobe and whether the guy can win or not. Of course he can win. In a good team I think there is no one that would say that he can't win. Teams wins championships. What I'm saying is that Jordan or Kobe in Lebron's place probably wouldn't have won.
Cmon if there is one guy out there worth of a max contract is LeBron James.
I will watch the hour special or whatever it is that they are doing to know where this guy is going to play. And I hope its not Cleveland. I want him in a fast team.
I remember sometime this season/playoffs Lebron remarked "The real season begins in July" referring to free agency. This media circus is on him. Sad that loyalty means nothing for some guys.
Fuck that, if a team can't win 4 out of 7 against another team they are not the better team. End of story. I get that there may be unfavorable match ups but this is the fucking NBA and it doesn't follow the queens-bury rules of honorable engagement. If you are the better team you will win. Sure you may drive yourself crazy with "well if this team faced that team instead of that team they would be in a better position", but if you have to do a mathematical jujitsu to justify why a team lost then that's just borders on delusional.
Heretic - Uh, okay. Let's just dismiss a pretty standard statistical concept that's used near universally, and instead wonder about if LeBron will want to share the spotlight. Thanks for your posts, bro.
Sorry dude, i'm not saying its not mathematically relevant i'm saying that if one team cannot beat abother team in a possible 7 games then the team that won is better. Dunno whats so complex about that or why it needs to be over analyzed. But I guess people need to justify why some one lost than the team they were cheering for was simply worse.
Then again if Hollinger can come up with a statistical method that says the lakers are simply a mid level team and they win back to back championships, am I supposed to nod and say "sure the lakers won but statistically they should lost"? Fuck that. This is the NBA, you either win or lose, there is no they won but they should not have won or they lost but statistically they should won. That's masturbation without the payoff but hey who am I to look down on you jerking your dick madly hoping what comes out is statistical evidence that your shitty team "should" have won.
Heretic - In math, it's not "should" have won. It's "expected value". Obviously you're too wrapped up to even understand that, so it's not worth me trying anymore, but please, do continue to explain why your arbitrary choice of 7 games is absolute.
I prefer to be based on reality and not pretend I'm Scott Bakula and quantum leap to a alternate dimension where the suns beat the Lakers and Lebron is not composed entirely of grade A douche. I understand expected value but I also don't try to make excuses when the expected value and reality tend to be on opposite sides.
I still hear echos of suns fans saying "but but but they could have won if only (insert statistical scenario)". But hey if it helps chase away those nightmares and soothes the burn of having a team you cheer for get sodomized repeatedly, keep jerking that statistical dick and maybe one day the jizz that spews forth will taste just right.
No one is making excuses when reality doesn't turn out as the expected value. We just simply point it out. I have no idea why you keep going on with these dumbass analogies and putting words in our mouths, but if you're going to continue being an obnoxious troll then I'm not going to approve your comments anymore.
"arc, your comments on LeBron are either irrelevant or insubstantial. To say that "[LeBron]'s never won" and "has zero justification for this circus" is absolutely silly. He is by far the biggest contributor to the Cavaliers' success the past few seasons. Beyond that, the playoffs inherently have a lot of randomness to them. That's one reason the Cavs got to the Finals, and it's one reason they've had "early" exits the past couple seasons (although really, I don't think there's much shame in being one of the last four teams playing). By many measures, LeBron is a statistical marvel. Your criticisms rely on how his team has performed, but we all know he's just one part. I know you're settling in as a resident troll, but please incorporate some modern thought on basketball statistics."
I disagreed and said if you can't win in a possible 7 games then you are not the better team. You and DKH seemed to imply the better team doesn't always win in a 7 game series. I had issues with that which is where the whole thing started.
I'm not putting words in your mouth, you in particular were tossing out statistical and fantastical scenarios during the suns - lakers series. You didn't just point them out but also blamed other factors (refs, specific plays etc) when those scenarios didn't materialize. Those are excuses.
To me the game is simple, you win you are better, you lose and you are not. I do not need the security blanket of statistical alternate universes where things went my way.
Okay good. So we're telling you that your arbitrary selection of 7 games is meaningless (for example, just replace the number 7 with 1, 3, 5, 9, or 11 in all your posts and it's just as meaningless), and that with some statistics we can actually pick a better number of games to be more certain that the better team won, depending on how much better one team is over the other, of course. Or better yet, with 7 games we can give the percent chance that the better team wins regardless of how much better one team is over the other. Anyways...
Don't strawman this with what I wrote about the Lakers and Suns. You'll have to point out specific examples of my "statistical and fantastical scenarios", since I don't think I was doing that. I know exactly what excuses I was making for the Suns not performing the way I thought they could have.
And finally, you imply a sort of "ends justify the means" with your "win you are better, lose you are not" view, and I simply don't agree with that. Cheating is the easiest example to counter-argue that point. Statistics (with proper definitions of "win", "loss", and "better") is another method.
I wonder if it's even possible for you to post without making a troll remark, like "security blanket of statistical alternate universes". You were oh so close with that last one.
"...DKH seemed to imply the better team doesn't always win in a 7 game series."
Absolutely true. Imagine flipping a coin 7 times. If it comes up 5 heads and 2 tails, do you immediately conclude it's not a fair coin? That one side weighs more (i.e. is better). Or instead say, "Huh, funny things can happen with so small of a sample size."
Of course sometimes the worse team wins. That's part of what makes sports exciting (the Warriors beating the Mavericks), and everyone knows the rules going in. But as Anaconda notes, we can also control the strength of random effects on the playoffs by sliding different things, for example having a 9-game or 5-game series to decide who is "better". Note that Cleveland won a 3-game series with the Celtics, but lost a 5-game or 7-game series. Why doesn't the 3-game series decide who is better vs. the 7-game series?
7 games is fine. Players have 70+ regular season games to feel each other out either by playing each other or watching other teams play against each other. There's enough time and games during the regular season to know exactly how each team plays. Its not like we're taking teams that have never played each other and putting them in a 7 game series and deciding who is better. By the time the teams gets to the playoffs they know each others strengths and weaknesses. If you can't win in the series after all that then you are not better. Period.
Dude I would love to dig into archives and pull out some jems from the suns - Lakers series but I'm just too fucking lazy. But I distinctly remember cracking up to some hilarious "if only" situations you were throwing out.
Aside from questionable ref calls when do NBA players cheat enough to tip a game? Steroids don't make a huge difference in basketball, to my knowledge no one shaves points. Since the 7 game series started, I have yet to see a team win a series that was not playing better than the opposing team. Its not like Soccer where luck can play a huge factor.
Winning is the ultimate argument ender. You win because when it counted you beat all those that you've come up against and in a playoff series you have to do it 4 times.
You can argue that well 7 games isn't enough games to decisively say who is better and if there were more games spread out differently and XYZ team tried their best the "expected value" is that they will win. Then I can come back with well if they played X amount of games over X amount of time then they would still lose. And on and on and on. As the saying goes "Facts are stubborn things but statistics are more pliable". So I just stick with what actually happened.
Mavs were the worst team in that series. Its like my old Bball coach used to say "You don't have to be the better team all the time, you just need to be the better between the first and last whistle".
I'm fine with statistics predicting future game outcomes but I have a big issue with people trying to get the stats to support their theory AFTER the game is over and despite the outcome.
The problem right now is that you and Anaconda are viewing the variables (the teams) as constants. If it was a 3 game series would the cavs and the celtics play the same? hell no. So your arguments about number of games played is flawed because unlike your coin toss, adjustments will be made whether its a 3 7 or 9 game series. Hell doc rivers would have made different regular season decisions based on that alone. Tails doesn't adjust just because heads came up on the first toss.
Anaconda! We both facepalmed over the same sentence.
Heretic: Of course the Mavs were worse than the Warriors in that series. That's why the Warriors won; that's tautology. But imagine the Mavs played 100 playoff series against the Warriors. How many do you think the Mavs win?
Meh close enough. Seeing as how I was arguing against the hypothesis of "Having more playoff games makes it fairer", I didn't have to be Matlock to win this one in a knock out. The only worse idea was Paul Pierce's "If the basket ball rim was much higher the game would be much better" argument"
Did you have a response to my question above? Also, do you have any sources that have expanded more on the theory behind your arguments? Or are we supposed to take you as the authority?
All this hype over nothing...
As a fan of basketball i prefer change. It makes the regular season less predictable. The more roster changes the better.
the Johnson extension => boooring
KING MARIO!!!!!
I guess when he saw all those zeroes he was like "That's amar''''e"....
Great joke huh?
captcha: lesses as in lesses we forget, Amar'''e's not a franchise changer.
wow ...
my head just exploded ... *facepalm*
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AkP91fO8ELXBMw8klczN2cU5nYcB?slug=ys-stoudemireknicks070510
And kudos to Joe Johnson, he just got away with the biggest robbery in the history of the NBA.
I mean, the whole idea of hijacking the playoffs and free agency for the last two years when he hasn't been able to get back to the Finals despite is gloriously annoying. That trip to the Finals was a fluke itself, since Cleveland and Detroit were the only 50 win teams in the East that year, and the Cavs had exactly 50.
I hate the Lakers, but when they lost to Boston in 2008, they came back pissed (except for the Houston series in 2009) and won it twice. Boston lost KG in 2009, got him back in 2010, limited minutes on everyone to rest them, and went to Game 7 of the Finals. Phoenix tried it with Shaq, failed, shipped him out, got Alvin Gentry and a bench, and got back to the Western Conference Finals. Orlando, despite getting Vince Carter, gets back to the Eastern Conference Finals. Not their fault "Ball" took the money and ran to a team that couldn't make the playoffs (seriously, whoever gives Chris Bosh max money should be fired).
My point is this, when teams that actually aspire to win the whole thing fail, they actually try to fix the problem. LeBron James has not addressed the problem, and at this point, I don't think that was ever his intention (that's what Brooks is insinuating, anyway). Firing Mike Brown, despite coaching them to the league's best record, and replacing him with a coach who is notorious for having his players quit on him is not the answer. (121-63, in New Orleans, in a playoff game, is the very definition of quitting). Firing Danny Ferry is not the answer, all he did was get the personnel that James needed to at least have a chance. James, like a spoiled brat, is making every team in the league come to his throne and kiss his feet and court him, like he is their savior, when he has yet to save anything but his ego (and he couldn't even do that, since the tape of the kid dunking on him was leaked anyway).
Here's another article: http://www.cavsnews.com/20100513-2930.php. Like it's Mike Brown's fault the MVP of the league and his teammates, who are all getting paid millions of dollars, couldn't bother to put up a fight in the biggest game of the season.
He will always look good in the 'Antoni system and he can avoid the whole "defense" thing. (imagine him in chi-town) All the while making max money.
Amar''E knows what's up!
Anyway, kudos to Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, and Paul Pierce on their awesome management skills and their off-season acquisitions (except Vag Carter)! I can't wait to see which big off-season move Steve Nash will pull off this year!!!
LeBron can't join Bosh, because Bosh wants to be a "centerpiece". Talk about a douchebag. It's one thing saying you're good when you are actually good but...
LeBron can't join Wade because, I mean it just doesn't feel like those two would be happy in the same team. And without defensive bigs and some very good shooters it's far from a dream team anyway.
LeBron can't go to Chicago because everyone is saying that he should go there, and he is the king and the king does what he wants not what others tell him to do. Ah yes and cause of Michael Jordan.
So he'll stay in Cleveland. Booring.
Or go to the Nets! He could go to the Nets! They have some young talent and this russian guy who seems to be focused on winning. Imagine how everyone on that team would be so pumped up after that awful last season if LeBron would join them.
But he'll probably stay in Cleveland... oooohh...
You forgot the "Lebron James is a douche" tag on this post, I've edited it in for you =).
LeBron can't join Bosh because Bosh wants to be a "centerpiece". Talk about a douchebag. It's one thing saying you're good when you are actually good but...
LeBron can't join Wade because, I mean it just doesn't feel like those two would be happy in the same team. And without defensive bigs and some very good shooters it's far from a dream team anyway.
LeBron can't go to Chicago because everyone is saying that he should go there, and he is the king and the king does what he wants not what others tell him to do. Ah yes and cause of Michael Jordan.
So he'll stay in Cleveland. Booring.
Or go to the Nets! He could go to the Nets! They have some young talent and this russian guy who seems to be focused on winning. Imagine how everyone on that team would be so pumped up after that awful last season if LeBron would join them.
But he'll probably stay in Cleveland... oooohh...
"From Nowitzki's perch, there are only two players who could be added to the Mavericks' roster that would make the ultimate difference -- LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. 'I see it this way, if you don't get LeBron and you don't get Wade, are you going to give the max to somebody else and lock yourself in with a player who's not going to get you over the hump?' Nowitzki said. 'You got to be a little careful with locking yourself into something with a max contract with somebody that's going to give you 55 wins, and you're still going to lose in the second or third round. So to me, if you could get Wade or LeBron, you got to go for it. But other than that, it's tough. You don't want to completely screw the organization over for four or five years if it's not going to put it over the top.'"
While this IS true, is Nowitzki saying basically "Hi Dallas, thanks for paying me a bunch for 55 wins and an early exit" ??
Dude, seriously, just honestly tell me: when did LeBron start doin' the GM's job? Seriously. Because he rooted for them to get Jamison instead of STATue? That was just common sense. Because he stuck up for Varegina and Pavlovic when their contracts were up? Okay, that was stupid of him, but in neither of those cases did he start acting like he owned the team, or making ultimatums. Your comment about Kobe doesn't work in your favor, either. He wanted to be traded, or for them to trade Bynum and some other guys away and get him some firepower, which they did. (And they managed to achieve that without losing Bynum or other valuable parts of the team.) How is he not an asshole, then?!
Let me try and shorten this discussion, because I often find myself defending LeBron, and I don't like it. I'm not his die-hard fan, but reactions like yours just get to me. All you people seem to mostly be pissed because of the media attention he gets. Well, newsflash for ya: He's one of the best active basketball players. He is bound to get attention, whether he likes it, or not. That's the way it's been since high school. He didn't ask for this shit, he just played basketball, and gave it all he got. All the extra media attention right now (and in the past couple of years) surrounding his possible departure from Cleveland, is again a result of the dumbass journalists, who have nothing better to do, then to glorify him. The thing you guys have to get, is that it's not LeBron, jumping into the spotlight, sending the reporters messages, and ordering articles about himself. Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds?
P.S.: The Knicks are back! Back to overpaying for underachieving players, that is...
That's revisionist history at best, extremely inaccurate at worst. When Kobe decided he'd rather play "on Pluto" than with the Lakers, Kupchak obliged him. I can't believe that it's only been 3 years since this happened and people have forgotten, but Kupchak and the Bulls agreed to a trade before Kobe vetoed it. Kupchak getting Fisher was a gift from God.
Kobe doesn't trust Kupchak to do his job and in his defense, he probably shouldn't. Kupchak's been on a pretty good run ever since the Cook for Ariza heist, but before that point he was arguably the single worst GM in the league, which is impressive considering that Isiah and McHale were still employed at the time.
How did this son of a bitch get my lions?!?!!?!?!?!?!!!????
No, no, no. Yours are MOUNTAIN lions, remember?
That's all really swell, but I fail to see the point. If anybody tried to "play GM", it was Kobe. The fact that Kupchak "obliged" him somehow makes all the difference? Nobody had to force LeBron to do anything. He stuck with the Cavs while they were still shitty, waited it out, and still hasn't won a title (some of the blame is on him, though), and now he's simply considering his options. It's not his fault that the media is having a field day. It would be much easier on the guy himself, if he could just quietly choose a team to play for, without people shouting "Asshole!" on every corner...
@KingJames: "Hello World, the Real King James is in the Building "Finally". My Brother @oneandonlycp3 gas'd me up to jump on board so I'm here. Haaaa"
STOP THE PRESSES.
"It's not his fault that the media is having a field day"
It kinda is. He's been touting free agency since last year and going on and on about certain teams he may go to. Then in January he abruptly said that he won't talk about it any more. At that point its like listening to a lecture on anal rape and then told at the end of the lecture not to think about anal rape.
Even when he's been "silent" about it, his camp has been churning out bizarre trade scenarios just to keep everyone guessing. If he truly didn't want this insanity he should have shut the fuck up from the beginning. He's the ring master to this circus of douche baggery and will continue to milk it until he finally decides.
No matter where he goes though, GMs that have cleared space will start signing mid level players to ridiculous contracts. We already have Amare, Joe Johnson, and Chris "I can't believe i'm still in the NBA" Duhon. This will probably be 10 times worse once Wade, Bosh and James make their decision.
"And it looks like Kwame Brown is, too.
The Boston Herald reports that Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers have set up a meeting with Brown in Orlando."
I want nothing more than the Celtics to hire Kwame Brown. Delicious.
LeBron James is the biggest asshole in the league. Anyone who tells his mother to "sit her ass down" on Mother's Day on a nationally televised game is going to get that label for life. He's never won, has zero justification for this circus despite his play. Yet no one is trying to stop this ego-trip (again, Kobe had at least three people in LA who were far more successful than he basically telling him to STFU). He has the owner and the town in his pocket. The two guys who could have done something have been fired. And yes, Lebron is completely enabling it. Go to his website - "You'll be the first to know." He went to his own "LeBron Appreciation Day." Wearing the Yankees hat. There's a myriad of things he's done to encourage the media attention.
My point is that of all the top guys that may have had the power to dictate who joins his team, he should be way down the list. But he's acting like he should be at the top. Dirk actually won games in the Finals, but he resigned right away. Pierce won Finals MVP, and he's right back with Boston. Wade can listen to offers, because he has a ring and a Finals MVP, but he's only talking to Chicago because it's his hometown. Joe Johnson, not so much, but if the Hawks are dumb enough to offer max money on the second day, he should take it.
I completely agree with you on the media coverage. Screamin' A. Smith and Ric Bucher have no business reporting on the NBA when they contradict themselves on a daily basis. But they wouldn't have to if James had said two years ago "I'm staying in Cleveland." Then we can just bash the media trying to get him out of Ohio. That's certainly more fun than this. This is just groan-inducing.
Again, (wow, I feel like I'm talking to one person, instead of three...), that's your impression, i.e. your problem. I'm sure you could dig up some article where LeBron says something vague about free agency and maybe about being a fan of Jay-Z or something like that, but you have some serious issues, if that's the kind of thing that annoys you. The thing that annoys everyone, including me, are the sportswriters, who just can't come up with anything more interesting, so they just keep chewing on the same "story" for years. And, of course, they went into afterburner mode as soon as the post-season ended...That was to be expected, but, again, not LeBron's fault.
I mean, I'm a much bigger fan of team basketball (I loved what the Celtics did in 2008., and I love how the OKC are looking right now), and I am a huuuge fan of Dwyane Wade, but guys like you, with your "LeBron is an asshole simply for existing, and I will attribute everything that pisses me off to his doing" actually make me yearn for him to win at least 6 titles, and shut you up for good...if you can sometimes admit you're a little bit wrong.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/How-junior-college-star-God-s-Gift-Achiuwa-got-h?urn=ncaab,253762
http://indiana.scout.com/a.z?s=170&p=8&c=1&nid=4310056
Karc, your comments on LeBron are either irrelevant or insubstantial. To say that "[LeBron]'s never won" and "has zero justification for this circus" is absolutely silly. He is by far the biggest contributor to the Cavaliers' success the past few seasons. Beyond that, the playoffs inherently have a lot of randomness to them. That's one reason the Cavs got to the Finals, and it's one reason they've had "early" exits the past couple seasons (although really, I don't think there's much shame in being one of the last four teams playing). By many measures, LeBron is a statistical marvel. Your criticisms rely on how his team has performed, but we all know he's just one part. I know you're settling in as a resident troll, but please incorporate some modern thought on basketball statistics.
Lebron is not an asshole, he's a douche.
But noooooo he's quite happy letting them yammer on about the possibility that he may team up with Marvin the Martian for Space Jam 2 - The Revenge, while he meekly shrugs his shoulders. So fuck Lebron and as far as him winning 6 championships, unless they surround him with 2 or more all stars I don't see that happening any time soon.
Plus you're forgetting that in new york he made the cavs management shit a brick and the knicks cream their panties by saying just wait for July *wink* *wink* and went to make passive aggressive comments about free agency WHILE it was a almost a year away.
So king douche can suck a fat one.
Never liked the whole "random" and "luck" scenarios people toss around concerning the playoffs. There are a possible 7 games you can play to prove you are the better team. If you can't do that then clearly, you are not the better team. Celtics were better in the East and Lakers were better in the west. Not lucky or randomly got better match ups but the overall better teams.
Agree that there is no shame in being one of the four teams, except when in one year, they had the best record and homecourt throughout and could not get to the Finals, and the other year, they did not even get to the "Final Four" because they were beat by an experienced team, helped by the "superstar" quitting in a pivotal game 5 at home. I did not see the Lakers quit when they had to play Game 5 in Boston of a tied series (they lost, but it was certainly a winnable game). Orlando had Game 5 at home against the Celtics and blew them out.
Yes, LeBron is a statical marvel. A marvel that has netted ZERO rings. As was discussed in other places here, having a superstar building up stats has incredible relevance on how a team performs. In that it completely demoralizes them. I hate to make the reference, but take Game 7 of the Finals. Kobe was stinking out the joint, so he drove to the basket to get free throws and let the others start taking shots. Not an accident they scored 30 in that last quarter to win the game.
And how are my comments about this being a circus irrelevant when this is about to happen - http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5359255
"LeBron James is planning to announce the team with which he will sign during a one-hour special on ESPN Thursday night, ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard has learned through independent sources."
Add "BrouTard" to the list of people that should not be reporting on the NBA. Really, an ESPN event to announce where LeBron James will be playing games on ESPN? How ego serving is that?! A full hour for a 2-minute statement. Are you kidding me? Look, I've said from the start that ESPN has been the absolute worst with this nonsense, but LeBron is completely enabling it. What justification is there for this, other than the incessant hype by ESPN and LeBron James over the last two years while everyone else who actually put up a fight in the Finals has either quietly re-signed with their teams or won the title and have no reason to leave? Are we supposed to put this up there with Air Jordan coming back, or Magic announcing that he has HIV and has to retire from the game? And those were on ESPNews. This is on the "mother ship." If someone wants to defend this, go for it. I'd sooner root for Kobe than this clown. At least he WINS.
RT @CSheridanESPN Curious how they'll make this announcement last a whole hour. ESPN: Enabling Some Peculiar Narcissism.
And yes, ESPN made Sheridan take down the original tweet. Just sayin'.
ugh... I just vomitted in my own mouth...
@Karc- "LeBron James is planning to announce the team with which he will sign during a one-hour special on ESPN Thursday night, ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard has learned through independent sources."
WTF!This for real? If it is, I just found a new reason to hate the news media.
Are you serious? The randomness is basic statistics. Say we go into a best-of-seven playoff series knowing one team will win 2/3 of the games they play, but we don't know which team. The worse team will still win the series 1 out of 5 times. It would take a 23-game series before we could be 95% confident that the better team was identified.
If the probability difference isn't as sharp as 2/3 to 1/3, the number of games increases rapidly. Take a 55-45 probability for one team winning/losing to another. In this case, the worse team wins the series about 40% of the time, and a 269-game series is necessary so that the worse team wins the series only 5% of the time.
For a more in-depth explanation, see "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives" by Leonard Mlodinow.
I'm sad to see that he's hopping on that train. I agree that you need a little more NBA cred, before you can actually take over all the sports news in an entire country. Still, as egoistic as this is, let's not forget: of all the players in this league right now, he's the only guy whose game screams "title material!"(I'm not counting Wade, because he already won). Just as everybody was tensely waiting for MJ's first ring, now there are a lot of people waiting for the inevitable moment, when James wins it. And face it: you guys are part of those people, too, with the exception of wishing he never wins one. You're following this as closely as you can, and wondering where he'll end up. Not to mention that I know the Laker fans here have more at stake - a possible three-peat, which could be thwarted if James teams up with one of the two other guys. (If he, on the other hand, made a stuuupid mistake, like going to NY, to play with STATue, you guys would be set for life...)
As for the non-LeBron news:
Kwame Brown!?!?!? Whyyyyyy???
Also, check this out, from NBA.com's "Rookie Ladder":
"Stephenson takes a step down Tuesday only because Harangody is hustling. Stephenson got dinged up a couple times in the Pacers' loss to the Nets, but still finished with 15 points on 7-for-110 shooting. With every game, the Pacers brass must be getting more and more giddy with their pick."
( http://www.nba.com/rookieladder/?ls=iref:nbahpt1 )
Looks like we've got a new mega-Bryant on our hands. Go Pacers!
I don't know why you mix this up with the comparisons to Kobe and whether the guy can win or not. Of course he can win. In a good team I think there is no one that would say that he can't win. Teams wins championships. What I'm saying is that Jordan or Kobe in Lebron's place probably wouldn't have won.
Cmon if there is one guy out there worth of a max contract is LeBron James.
I will watch the hour special or whatever it is that they are doing to know where this guy is going to play. And I hope its not Cleveland. I want him in a fast team.
Sad that loyalty means nothing for some guys.
Fuck that, if a team can't win 4 out of 7 against another team they are not the better team. End of story. I get that there may be unfavorable match ups but this is the fucking NBA and it doesn't follow the queens-bury rules of honorable engagement. If you are the better team you will win. Sure you may drive yourself crazy with "well if this team faced that team instead of that team they would be in a better position", but if you have to do a mathematical jujitsu to justify why a team lost then that's just borders on delusional.
Sorry dude, i'm not saying its not mathematically relevant i'm saying that if one team cannot beat abother team in a possible 7 games then the team that won is better. Dunno whats so complex about that or why it needs to be over analyzed. But I guess people need to justify why some one lost than the team they were cheering for was simply worse.
Then again if Hollinger can come up with a statistical method that says the lakers are simply a mid level team and they win back to back championships, am I supposed to nod and say "sure the lakers won but statistically they should lost"? Fuck that. This is the NBA, you either win or lose, there is no they won but they should not have won or they lost but statistically they should won. That's masturbation without the payoff but hey who am I to look down on you jerking your dick madly hoping what comes out is statistical evidence that your shitty team "should" have won.
I prefer to be based on reality and not pretend I'm Scott Bakula and quantum leap to a alternate dimension where the suns beat the Lakers and Lebron is not composed entirely of grade A douche. I understand expected value but I also don't try to make excuses when the expected value and reality tend to be on opposite sides.
I still hear echos of suns fans saying "but but but they could have won if only (insert statistical scenario)". But hey if it helps chase away those nightmares and soothes the burn of having a team you cheer for get sodomized repeatedly, keep jerking that statistical dick and maybe one day the jizz that spews forth will taste just right.
I was responding to the original quote by DKH:
"arc, your comments on LeBron are either irrelevant or insubstantial. To say that "[LeBron]'s never won" and "has zero justification for this circus" is absolutely silly. He is by far the biggest contributor to the Cavaliers' success the past few seasons. Beyond that, the playoffs inherently have a lot of randomness to them. That's one reason the Cavs got to the Finals, and it's one reason they've had "early" exits the past couple seasons (although really, I don't think there's much shame in being one of the last four teams playing). By many measures, LeBron is a statistical marvel. Your criticisms rely on how his team has performed, but we all know he's just one part. I know you're settling in as a resident troll, but please incorporate some modern thought on basketball statistics."
I disagreed and said if you can't win in a possible 7 games then you are not the better team. You and DKH seemed to imply the better team doesn't always win in a 7 game series. I had issues with that which is where the whole thing started.
I'm not putting words in your mouth, you in particular were tossing out statistical and fantastical scenarios during the suns - lakers series. You didn't just point them out but also blamed other factors (refs, specific plays etc) when those scenarios didn't materialize. Those are excuses.
To me the game is simple, you win you are better, you lose and you are not. I do not need the security blanket of statistical alternate universes where things went my way.
Don't strawman this with what I wrote about the Lakers and Suns. You'll have to point out specific examples of my "statistical and fantastical scenarios", since I don't think I was doing that. I know exactly what excuses I was making for the Suns not performing the way I thought they could have.
And finally, you imply a sort of "ends justify the means" with your "win you are better, lose you are not" view, and I simply don't agree with that. Cheating is the easiest example to counter-argue that point. Statistics (with proper definitions of "win", "loss", and "better") is another method.
I wonder if it's even possible for you to post without making a troll remark, like "security blanket of statistical alternate universes". You were oh so close with that last one.
"...DKH seemed to imply the better team doesn't always win in a 7 game series."
Absolutely true. Imagine flipping a coin 7 times. If it comes up 5 heads and 2 tails, do you immediately conclude it's not a fair coin? That one side weighs more (i.e. is better). Or instead say, "Huh, funny things can happen with so small of a sample size."
Of course sometimes the worse team wins. That's part of what makes sports exciting (the Warriors beating the Mavericks), and everyone knows the rules going in. But as Anaconda notes, we can also control the strength of random effects on the playoffs by sliding different things, for example having a 9-game or 5-game series to decide who is "better". Note that Cleveland won a 3-game series with the Celtics, but lost a 5-game or 7-game series. Why doesn't the 3-game series decide who is better vs. the 7-game series?
7 games is fine. Players have 70+ regular season games to feel each other out either by playing each other or watching other teams play against each other. There's enough time and games during the regular season to know exactly how each team plays. Its not like we're taking teams that have never played each other and putting them in a 7 game series and deciding who is better. By the time the teams gets to the playoffs they know each others strengths and weaknesses. If you can't win in the series after all that then you are not better. Period.
Dude I would love to dig into archives and pull out some jems from the suns - Lakers series but I'm just too fucking lazy. But I distinctly remember cracking up to some hilarious "if only" situations you were throwing out.
Aside from questionable ref calls when do NBA players cheat enough to tip a game? Steroids don't make a huge difference in basketball, to my knowledge no one shaves points. Since the 7 game series started, I have yet to see a team win a series that was not playing better than the opposing team. Its not like Soccer where luck can play a huge factor.
Winning is the ultimate argument ender. You win because when it counted you beat all those that you've come up against and in a playoff series you have to do it 4 times.
You can argue that well 7 games isn't enough games to decisively say who is better and if there were more games spread out differently and XYZ team tried their best the "expected value" is that they will win. Then I can come back with well if they played X amount of games over X amount of time then they would still lose. And on and on and on. As the saying goes "Facts are stubborn things but statistics are more pliable". So I just stick with what actually happened.
Mavs were the worst team in that series. Its like my old Bball coach used to say "You don't have to be the better team all the time, you just need to be the better between the first and last whistle".
I'm fine with statistics predicting future game outcomes but I have a big issue with people trying to get the stats to support their theory AFTER the game is over and despite the outcome.
The problem right now is that you and Anaconda are viewing the variables (the teams) as constants. If it was a 3 game series would the cavs and the celtics play the same? hell no. So your arguments about number of games played is flawed because unlike your coin toss, adjustments will be made whether its a 3 7 or 9 game series. Hell doc rivers would have made different regular season decisions based on that alone. Tails doesn't adjust just because heads came up on the first toss.
/facepalm.
Just forget it. I'm ending this. You are too thick and/or stupid to continue this conversation.
FTFY.
Heretic: Of course the Mavs were worse than the Warriors in that series. That's why the Warriors won; that's tautology. But imagine the Mavs played 100 playoff series against the Warriors. How many do you think the Mavs win?
Did you have a response to my question above? Also, do you have any sources that have expanded more on the theory behind your arguments? Or are we supposed to take you as the authority?